2017-18 Premier League Week 4 Betting Preview
The International break couldn’t have come at a worse time for our value plays as they went 3-1 for +4.95 units in Week 3. Both draws hit (WBA/Stoke, Watford/Brighton) while Newcastle throttled West Ham, and our only loss was Southampton failing to beat Huddersfield.
In other Week 3 action, Man City escaped with a 2-1 victory at Bournemouth in the 7th minute of stoppage time, Liverpool thumped Arsenal 4-0 at home, Burnley scored late to tie Tottenham 1-1, and Man United kept rolling to their third straight victory.
Week 3 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (-2.67 units)
Away 2 of 10 (-4.64 units)
Draw 4 of 10 (+7.12 units)
Week 3 Biggest Payouts:
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (opened +514, closed +625)
Swansea (opened +348 to +309) at Crystal Palace
Season Results:
Home 13 of 30 (-3.36 units)
Away 10 of 30 (+8.22 units)
Draw 7 of 30 (+1.87 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (opened +1450, closed +1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (opened +514, closed +625) in Week 3
Everton/Man City Draw (opened +466, closed +515) in Week 2
The big match for Week 4 is Manchester City hosting Liverpool, where the home side has moved from -104 to -114 to win. However, the public is all over Liverpool, getting more than 60% of tickets around the market. Bettors probably have the most recent results on their mind, as Man City escaped 2-1 at Bournemouth and Liverpool trounced Arsenal 4-0. The big odds on Liverpool are very enticing for casual bettors, but this is a great opportunity to fade a very trendy dog, so I like the value on Manchester City -114.
Unfortunately that’s the only play I like enough to bet this weekend. I’ve been leaning toward Newcastle and Crystal Palace to win, but the public is fairly heavy on both sides. I’m also intrigued by Southampton at -150 vs. Watford, only getting 15% of moneyline tickets, so that’s a line to keep an eye on this weekend. Seems like the public really likes the dogs this weekend.
Most Lopsided: 83% on West Brom (+205) vs. Brighton, 78% on Tottenham (+112) vs. Everton
Biggest Line Moves: Man City (-104 to -114) vs. Liverpool, Huddersfield/West Ham Draw (+263 to +246)
Value Plays (4-3 record, +4.34 units, 62% ROI): Manchester City -114
As always, Premium and Pro members can track all the latest line moves, public betting percentages and more.
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