Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.
- Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, favorites went 6-5-2 ATS in Week 9. However in the 2016-17 season, favorites have gone 62-66-5 ATS (48.4%).
- Visiting teams went 6-5-2 ATS in Week 9 and have gone 63-62-5 ATS this season.
- Home underdogs went 2-3-1 ATS Week 9, but they have gone 22-20-1 ATS (52.4%) in the ’16-’17 season.
- Division underdogs went 3-3 ATS this week and on the season they are 26-18-1 ATS (59.1%).
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 8, 2016
- In Week 9, teams receiving more than half of spread bets went 6-5-2 ATS, pushing this season’s record to 67-58-5 (53.6%).
- The New Orleans Saints had the largest level of public support in Week 9. The Saints (closed as 5-point favorites) received 77% of spread bets against the San Francisco 49ers, who have the worst ATS record in the NFL this season.
- Teams receiving over 50% of spread money went 5-6-2 ATS this week, however they’ve only gone 62-64-5 ATS during the ’16-’17 season.
- The NFC East went 2-1 ATS and once again has the best ATS record in the league (20-11-1 ATS; +8.04 u).The AFC West (21-13-1, +7.63) is not too far behind.
- When the line got at least a half-point worse (i.e. moving from +4 to +3.5, or from -5 to -5.5), teams went 6-4-2 ATS.
- In Week 9, favorites went 9-4 straight up, but only earned bettors +0.55 units. Taking every favorite this season has gone 76-55 SU, but bettors would be down 15.26 units.
- The biggest moneyline upset in Week 9 was the Indianapolis Colts (+292) beating the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
#Colts pulled off the season's 3rd-biggest upset as +292 moneyline dogs in Green Bay last night (NE +330 at ARZ, LA +357 at ARZ).
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 7, 2016
- NFL Overs went 8-5 in Week 9. Taking every over has gone 74-59 (+11.37) this season.
- Bettors taking the Carolina Panthers (closed at -3) cringed on Sunday as a late touchdown pass spoiled their chance to cover. Trailing 13-3 with 34 seconds left, Case Keenum threw a 10-yard touchdown to Kenny Britt on 4th down and Greg Zuerlein converted the extra point.
- We’re more than halfway through the NFL season and there are a few tight division races that bettors should monitor. (Odds via Bovada)
- AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers -125, Cincinnati Bengals +225, Baltimore Ravens +325
- AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs +160, Oakland Raiders +160, Denver Broncos +250
- NFC North: Green Bay Packers +125, Minnesota Vikings +135, Detroit Lions +375
- Although Tom Brady and his Patriots were on a bye, Brady is still the favorite to win the MVP at Paddy Power. At the time of publication, Brady’s +200 to win the MVP.
- The Cleveland Browns lost their 9th straight game and with seven games left have moved to +188 to go winless. (Odds via Paddy Power)
- Bookmaker opened odds on how many games Los Angeles Rams rookie quarterback Jared Goff will start this season. With the Rams’ offense struggling, LA could insert Goff into the starting lineup, replacing the inconsistent Case Keenum. The oddsmakers have set the total at 3.5 games (o -150).
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