2016 NFL Season: Week 11 Betting Recap
Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.
- Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, favorites went 9-5 ATS in Week 11. but are only 75-81-5 ATS this season.
- In Week 11, visiting teams went 7-6 ATS, pushing their season record to 78-74-5 ATS.
- Road underdogs went 5-6 ATS in Week 11, but are 55-49-4 ATS this season.
- Although division ‘dogs went 0-2 ATS in Week 11, they are 29-21-1 (+6.98 u) in ’16-’17.
- In Week 11, teams that received more than half of spread bets went 9-5 ATS. This season teams getting over 50% of spread bets have gone 82-71-5 ATS.
- The New England Patriots received the highest level of support in Week 11. The Patriots (closed as 10.5-point favorites) received 85% of spread bets and covered the spread with a 30-17 win.
NFL teams receiving at least 80% of spread bets
2003-2015: 85-107 ATS (44.3%)
This season: 4-0 ATS— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 21, 2016
- In Week 11, teams that received over 50% of spread dollars went 7-5 ATS. In addition, teams that received at least 60% of spread money went 6-2 ATS.
- Despite going 2-2 ATS in Week 11, the NFC East still commands the best ATS record this season. NFC East teams have gone a combined 26-13-1 ATS in ’16-’17.
- When the line got at least a half-point worse (i.e. moving from +4 to +3.5), teams went 6-5 ATS in Week 11.
- Favorites went 11-3 straight up in Week 11 and have now gone 92-67 (57.9%) on the year.
Betting every NFL favorite on the moneyline this season would have resulted in a loss of -19.67 units. https://t.co/LU5p5V4Hai
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 21, 2016
- The biggest moneyline upset of Week 11 was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 19-17 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bucs (+256) closed as 7-point ‘dogs, receiving only 42% of spread bets and 47% of moneyline bets.
- NFL unders went 11-3 in Week 11, however, taking every under has gone just 77-84 this season.
#Lions are now the +110 favorites to win the NFC North at 5Dimes after they were +2800 on October 18th. Vikings are +165, Packers +395.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 21, 2016
- After Week 11, there was a shake up in the NFC North division race. (Odds via 5Dimes)
- NFC North: Detroit Lions +110, Minnesota Vikings +145, Green Bay Packers +395
- Tom Brady (+275) is still the favorite to win the MVP, but keep an eye on Russell Wilson (+350) and Ezekiel Elliot (+450). Both players have seen their odds steadily rise in recent weeks and either one could dethrone Brady as the favorite should they continue their success.
- The Patriots (+140) remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl at Westgate. Also in the top-5: Seattle (+500), Dallas (+500), Pittsburgh (+1400), and Oakland (+1600).
- The Cleveland Browns dropped another game, falling to 0-11 this year. Following their Week 11 loss, the Browns are now only +150—which translates to a 40% implied probability—to go winless.
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