2016 NFL Season: Week 10 Betting Recap

Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.

  • Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, underdogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 10. Underdogs are 76-66-5 ATS this season.
  • In Week 10, road teams went 8-6 ATS and have gone 71-68-1 ATS this season.
  • Home underdogs went 3-1 in Week 10. During the ’16-’17 season, home ‘dogs are 25-21-1 ATS.
  • Division underdogs went 2-1 ATS and are now 28-19-1 ATS on the season.

  • Teams receiving less than half of spread bets went 8-6 in Week 10. However, this season teams receiving under 50% of spread bets are only 66-70-5 ATS.
  • The Green Bay Packers had the largest level of public support in Week 10. The Packers (closed as 3-point favorites) received 79% of spread bets against the Tennessee Titans, who upset Mike McCarthy’s club with a shocking 47-25 win.
  • Teams that received less than 50% of spread money went 9-3 ATS in Week 10. In addition, teams that got less than 40% of money went 7-1 ATS.
  • Every NFC East team covered the spread in Week 10. This season NFC East teams are a league-leading 24-11-1 ATS (+11.93 u).
  • When the line got at least a half-point better (i.e. moving from +4 to +4.5 or -3 to -3.5), teams went 9-1 ATS.
  • In Week 10, ‘dogs went 9-5 (+9.02 u) straight up. Bettors who have taken every ‘dog this season are 64-81 on the season (+20.61 u).

  • The biggest moneyline upset was the Seattle Seahawks (+273) defeating the New England Patriots 31-24 in Foxborough, MA. The Seahawks, who closed as 7.5-point underdogs, received only 34% of spread bets.
  • NFL Overs went 7-7 in Week 10. Taking every over has gone 74-59 (+10.97 u) this season..
  • There was one especially bad beat in Week 10. Tied 17-17 with 20 seconds remaining, Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters stripped Carolina receiver Kelvin Benjamin in Panthers territory and recovered his NFL-high third fumble. Cairo Santos kicked the game-winning 37-yard field goal as time expired.

  • The Panthers last-second defeat had an impact on a couple of different futures. At 3-6, Carolina is no longer expected to win the NFC South or even make the playoffs. They are currently +1000 to win the NFC South and were previously +250 to playoffs. These are drastic shifts after the Panthers had the shortest odds to win their division (-275) and make the playoffs (-500), which reveals just how much the team has underperformed this season.
  • Despite their home loss to Seattle, New England remains the favorite (+140) to win the Super Bowl. In addition, the top-five most likely Super Bowl matchups all involve the Patriots.
  • Both the AFC West and the NFC North division races got even tighter after Week 10. (Odds via Bovada)
    • AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs +160, Oakland Raiders +160, Denver Broncos +225
    • NFC North: Green Bay Packers +170, Detroit Lions +170, Minnesota Vikings +200

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, futures and more.

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Andrew Fine

Andrew is a Sports Betting Specialist for Sports Insights. He can be reached at andrew@sportsinsights.com.

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