2016 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take (Part 1)
The first round of the 2016 NFL draft commences Thursday, April 28th at 8 p.m. ET as teams search for the best young talent from the college ranks. Although fans from across the country will be scouring the internet looking for mock draft predictions for their favorite team, there is a large segment of the population who believe that these mock drafts are typically inaccurate and offer limited insight.
This year’s draft has already provided fireworks with the Los Angeles Rams acquiring the first overall pick from the Tennessee Titans in a blockbuster trade. The consensus opinion was that the Rams wanted to make a splash by drafting a franchise quarterback as they settle into their new home in Los Angeles.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, early indications were the Rams were leaning towards selecting California’s Jared Goff over North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. That opinion seemed to be confirmed when Sportsbook.com posted odds for the number one pick on Saturday afternoon.
Which QB will be drafted sooner in the 2016 NFL Draft? (via Sportsbk)
Jared Goff -200
Carson Wentz +165
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) April 16, 2016
Since these odds were posted we have seen some contradicting information regarding the Rams’ selection. Later on Saturday afternoon, Paddy Power listed Wentz (-150) as the favorite to be selected with the first overall pick with Goff listed at +120. That actually created an interesting arbitrage opportunity, albeit with very low limits.
Two days after Sportsbook.com had initially posted this prop bet, they dropped the odds of Goff being selected with the first pick from -200 to -160. At the time of publication, those odds had dropped again to -145. Similarly, Paddy Power has adjusted the odds of Wentz being selected with the top pick from -150 to -120.
Although there’s some contradictory information, bettors should place more stock into the odds being offered by Sportsbook.com than those at Paddy Power. They can both be categorized as square books, but Paddy Power is based in Ireland and they have an inferior understanding of American sports.
Based on most reports, it seems likely that whichever player is not selected by the Rams with the top pick will be snatched up by the Browns with the second pick. Although they added Robert Griffin III in free agency, the team doesn’t appear to believe he’s the long-term answer at quarterback.
Most football analysts seem fairly certain about those top two picks, but there’s lots of uncertainty after that. Luckily, Sportsbook.com posted dozens of prop bets for the 2016 NFL Draft including draft pick over/unders and head-to-head matchups. Using these odds, we were able to project the top sixteen picks according to the oddsmakers.
The table below compares the most recent 2016 NFL mock draft picks from Mel Kiper and Walter Football to these oddsmaker projections to see if there are any discrepancies.
|Team||Mel Kiper (4/19)||Walter Football (4/15)||Oddsmakers (4/19)|
|1. Los Angeles Rams||Jared Goff||Carson Wentz||Jared Goff|
|2. Cleveland Browns||Carson Wentz||Jared Goff||Carson Wentz|
|3. San Diego Chargers||Laremy Tunsil||Laremy Tunsil||Jalen Ramsey|
|4. Dallas Cowboys||Jalen Ramsey||Jalen Ramsey||Laremy Tunsil|
|5. Jacksonville Jaguars||Myles Jack||Myles Jack||Joey Bosa|
|6. Baltimore Ravens||Joey Bosa||DeForest Buckner||Myles Jack|
|7. San Francisco 49ers||Ronnie Stanley||Joey Bosa||DeForest Buckner|
|8. Philadelphia Eagles||DeForest Buckner||Ezekiel Elliott||Ezekiel Elliott|
|9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Jack Conklin||Leonard Floyd||Jack Conklin|
|10. New York Giants||Laquon Treadwell||Vernon Hargreaves||Ronnie Stanley|
|11. Chicago Bears||Sheldon Rankins||William Jackson III||Laquon Treadwell|
|12. New Orleans Saints||William Jackson III||Jack Conklin||Darron Lee|
|13. Miami Dolphins||Darron Lee||Eli Apple||Taylor Decker|
|14. Oakland Raiders||Vernon Hargreaves III||Sheldon Rankins||Shaq Lawson|
|15. Tennessee Titans||Josh Doctson||Ronnie Stanley||Sheldon Rankins|
|16. Detroit Lions||Shaq Lawson||Jarran Reed||Jarran Reed|
One of the largest discrepancies in our mock draft involves Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. Sportsbook.com has set the over/under for his draft position at 8.5 with -245 juice on the under. He seems like a natural fit for the Philadelphia Eagles (who own the 8th pick) since they traded DeMarco Murray to the Titans back in March, yet Mel Kiper doesn’t have him being selected until the second round.
It’s also interesting to see that Walter Football’s latest mock draft has the Rams selecting Carson Wentz with the first overall pick. Their prediction echoes the sentiment of Paddy Power, but I still believe that Goff will ultimately be the pick.
We should note that some of these odds will likely move dramatically over the next week. All of these props take very low limits, and it doesn’t take much action to cause a sizable shift. For that reason, we’ll release another mock draft (Part 2) right before the draft.
The list below displays all of the various prop bets currently being offered by Sportsbook.com. We will continue to update these as the odds change and new props become available.
Draft Position Over/Under
- Joey Bosa 3.5 (O-390)
- Laremy Tunsil 4.5 (U-285)
- Myles Jack 5.5 (O-135)
- DeForest Buckner 6.5 (O-135)
- Ezekiel Elliott 8.5 (U-245)
- Ronnie Stanley 10.5 (U-210)
- Darron Lee 10.5 (O-340)
- Shaq Lawson 14.5 (U-120)
- Laquon Treadwell 20.5 (U-145)
- Corey Coleman 21.5 (O-140)
- Josh Doctson 22.5 (O-140)
- Paxton Lynch 28.5 (U-280)
- Connor Cook 31.5 (U-150)
- Derrick Henry 36.5 (O-185)
- Pharoh Cooper 56.5 (U-135)
Drafted First (Head-to-Head)
- Jared Goff -145 vs. Carson Wentz +115
- Laremy Tunsil -125 vs. Jalen Ramsey -115
- Myles Jack -140 vs. Joey Bosa +100
- Josh Doctson -120 vs. Laquon Treadwell -120
- Will Fuller -130 vs. Corey Coleman -110
- Paxton Lynch -275 vs. Connor Cook +190
Drafted First (Group)
- 2.5 Quarterbacks Selected in the 1st Round (O-525)
- 5.5 Running Backs and Wide Receivers Selected in the 1st Round (U-245)
- 3.5 Offensive Linemen Selected in the 1st Round (O-450)
- 7.5 Defensive Linemen Selected in the 1st Round (O-135)
- 4.5 Linebackers Selected in the 1st Round (O-200)
- 13.5 Offensive Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-140)
- 17.5 Defensive Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-150)
- 5.5 Ohio State Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-130)
- 13.5 Ohio State Players Selected in the Entire Draft (U-125)
- 3.5 Alabama Players Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-130)
- 2.5 Ole Miss Players Selected in the 1st Round (O-130)
- 1.5 Notre Dame Players Selected in the 1st Round (O-165)
- 8.5 SEC Players Players Selected in the 1st Round (U-160)
What do you think of our mock draft? Do you disagree with any selections? Are any prop bets offering value? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.