2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets

For months we have discussed some of the most popular futures and prop bets in addition to the historically profitable betting systems that we have featured. However, most of the available prop bets were based on picking the winner from the pool whether it’s the odds to lead the league in various statistical categories or win one of the many annual awards.

Earlier this week Bovada became the first major offshore sportsbook to post player performance prop bets. These props allow bettors to wager on the over/under for various statistical milestones. Although they take fairly low limits on this prop, it gives us insight into exactly how well oddsmakers believe players will perform during the upcoming season.

Players need to be on the opening day roster for action, but bettors are able to wager on the over/under for batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins and saves.

Batting Average (BA)

Name Batting Average
Miguel Cabrera .315
Bryce Harper .310
Jose Altuve .305
Andrew McCutchen .305
Mike Trout .305
Buster Posey .305
Robinson Cano .300
Paul Goldschmidt .300
Ben Revere .299
Joe Panik .299
Dee Gordon .295
Mookie Betts .295
A.J. Pollock .295
Adrian Beltre .295
Francisco Lindor .295
Michael Brantley .295
Jose Abreu .290
Joey Votto .290
Eric Hosmer .290
Denard Span .290
Lorenzo Cain .290
Yadier Molina .290
Melky Cabrera .290
Justin Turner .290
Jose Iglesias .290
David Peralta .290
Prince Fielder .290
Josh Donaldson .290
Dustin Pedoria .290
Xander Bogaerts .290
Corey Dickerson .290
Christian Yelich .290
Jason Kipnis .289
Howie Kendrick .289
Stephen Piscotty .285
Joe Mauer .285
Matt Duffy .285
Yasiel Puig .285
Billy Burns .285
David Wright .285
Nolan Arenado .285
Manny Machado .285
D.J. LeMahieu .285
Carlos Correa .285
Matt Carpenter .285
Hanley Ramirez .285
Francisco Cervelli .285
Brandon Phillips .285
Charlie Blackmon .285
Ender Inciarte .285
Adrian Gonzalez .285
Freddie Freeman .285
Victor Martinez .285
Odubel Herrera .280
Anthony Rizzo .280
Corey Seager .280
Yunel Escobar .280
Starlin Marte .280
Josh Harrison .280
Jacoby Ellsbury .280
Giancarlo Stanton .280
Pablo Sandoval .280
JD Martinez .280
Anthony Rendon .280
Troy Tulowitzki .280
Jonathan Lucroy .280
Carlos Gonzalez .280
Gerardo Parra .280
Ryan Braun .280
Nick Markakis .279
Matt Holiday .275
Matt Kemp .275
Adam Jones .275
Kendrys Morales .275
Starlin Castro .275
Ian Kinsler .275
Salvador Perez .275
Jayson Heyward .275
Yoenis Cespedes .275
Albert Pujols .270
Kris Bryant .270
Kolten Wong .270
Ben Zobrist .270
Maikel Franco .270
Michael Conforto .270
Edwin Encarnacion .270
Nelson Cruz .270
David Ortiz .269
Miguel Sano .269
Jose Bautista .265
Yangervis Solarte .265
Josh Reddick .265
Carlos Gomez .265
Kevin Kiermaier .265
George Springer .265
Andrelton Simmons .260
Stephen Vogt .260
Wil Myers .260
Derrick Norris .250

Home Runs (HR)

Player Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton 39.5
Chris Davis 39.5
Bryce Harper 37.5
Mike Trout 37.5
Nelson Cruz 35.5
Jose Bautista 35.5
Nolan Arenado 35.5
Josh Donaldson 34.5
Jose Abreu 33.5
Edwin Encarnacion 33.5
Kris Bryant 32.5
Paul Goldschmidt 32.5
Carlos Gonzalez 30.5
Anthony Rizzo 30.5
JD Martinez 30.5
Carlos Correa 29.5
Albert Pujols 29.5
Todd Frazier 29.5
Miguel Sano 29.5
Manny Machado 29.5
David Ortiz 28.5
Yoenis Cespedes 27.5
Miguel Cabrera 27.5
Mark Teixeira 27.5
Lucas Duda 27.5
Chris Carter 27.5
Adam Jones 27.5
George Springer 26.5
Kyle Schwarber 25.5
Jay Bruce 25.5
Mark Trumbo 25.5
Kyle Seager 24.5
Adrian Gonzalez 24.5
Troy Tulowitzki 24.5
Ryan Braun 24.5
Randal Grichuk 24.5
Prince Fielder 24.5
Andrew McCutchen 23.5
Brian Dozier 23.5
Matt Kemp 23.5
Maikel Franco 23.5
Kole Calhoun 23.5
Justin Bour 23.5
Joey Votto 23.5
Hunter Pence 23.5
Colby Rasmus 23.5
Brandon Moss 23.5
Brian McCann 23.5
Carlos Gomez 22.5
Yasiel Puig 22.5
Ryan Zimmerman 22.5
Luis Valbuena 22.5
Freddie Freeman 22.5
Evan Longoria 22.5
Curtis Granderson 22.5
Mitch Moreland 21.5
Carlos Santana 21.5
Matt Carpenter 21.5
Joc Pederson 20.5
Brandon Belt 20.5
Trevor Plouffe 20.5
Rougned Odor 20.5
Mike Moustakas 20.5
Kendrys Morales 20.5
Adrian Beltre 19.5
Shin-Soo Choo 19.5
Salvador Perez 19.5
Robinson Cano 19.5
Michael Conforto 19.5
Ian Desmond 19.5
Hanley Ramirez 19.5
Carlos Beltran 19.5
Buster Posey 19.5
CJ Cron 18.5
Ryan Howard 18.5
Neil Walker 17.5
Mookie Betts 17.5
Starlin Marte 17.5
Josh Reddick 17.5
Eric Hosmer 17.5
Charlie Blackmon 16.5
Brett Lawrie 16.5
Jayson Werth 16.5
Adam Lind 15.5
Michael Brantley 15.5
Justin Turner 15.5
Addison Russell 15.5
Wilson Ramos 15.5
Steven Souza 15.5
Stephen Vogt 15.5
Russell Martin 15.5
Nick Castellanos 15.5
Brett Gardner 15.5
Logan Forsythe 15.5
Daniel Murphy 15.5
Jayson Heyward 15.5
Francisco Lindor 15.5
Domingo Santana 15.5
Derrick Norris 14.5
A.J. Pollock 14.5
Corey Seager 14.5
Victor Martinez 14.5
Yangervis Solarte 13.5
Ian Kinsler 13.5
David Wright 13.5
Lorenzo Cain 13.5
Jose Altuve 12.5
Matt Duffy 12.5
Brandon Phillips 12.5

Runs Batted In (RBI)

Player RBI
Nolan Arenado 110.5
Miguel Cabrera 105.5
Josh Donaldson 105.5
Giancarlo Stanton 105.5
Chris Davis 105.5
Bryce Harper 105.5
Kris Bryant 105.5
Jose Bautista 101.5
Mike Trout 101.5
JD Martinez 100.5
Edwin Encarnacion 100.5
Carlos Gonzalez 100.5
Jose Abreu 100.5
Anthony Rizzo 99.5
Yoenis Cespedes 95.5
Carlos Correa 95.5
Adrian Gonzalez 95.5
Prince Fielder 90.5
Nelson Cruz 90.5
Manny Machado 90.5
David Ortiz 90.5
Andrew McCutchen 90.5
Todd Frazier 89.5
Buster Posey 89.5
Albert Pujols 89.5
Adam Jones 89.5
Miguel Sano 89.5
Ryan Braun 85.5
Matt Kemp 85.5
Hunter Pence 85.5
Evan Longoria 85.5
Michael Brantley 84.5
Robinson Cano 82.5
Jay Bruce 82.5
Freddie Freeman 82.5
Eric Hosmer 80.5
Yasiel Puig 80.5
Troy Tulowitzki 80.5
Trevor Plouffe 80.5
Maikel Franco 80.5
Lucas Duda 80.5
Adrian Beltre 80.5
Alex Rodriguez 80.5
Carlos Santana 80.5
Kyle Seager 80.5
Kendrys Morales 80.5
Kyle Schwarber 80.5
Ryan Zimmerman 79.5
Mark Teixeira 79.5
George Springer 79.5
Justin Bour 79.5
Kole Calhoun 77.5
Starlin Marte 77.5
Mitch Moreland 75.5
Mike Moustakas 75.5
Matt Carpenter 75.5
Mookie Betts 75.5
Chris Carter 75.5
Carlos Gomez 75.5
Daniel Murphy 75.5
Joey Votto 72.5
Brandon Belt 72.5
Salvador Perez 70.5
Ryan Howard 70.5
Rougned Odor 70.5
Randal Grichuk 70.5
Neil Walker 70.5
Matt Duffy 70.5
Jayson Werth 70.5
Francisco Lindor 70.5
Corey Seager 70.5
Brian Dozier 70.5
Adam Lind 70.5
CJ Cron 69.5
Wilson Ramos 69.5
Logan Forsythe 69.5
Josh Reddick 69.5
Jayson Heyward 69.5
Ian Desmond 69.5
Lorenzo Cain 69.5
Brandon Phillips 69.5
Stephen Vogt 65.5
Russell Martin 65.5
Carlos Beltran 65.5
David Wright 64.5
Michael Conforto 60.5
Steven Souza 60.5
Jose Altuve 59.5

Steals (SB)

Player Steals
Billy Hamilton 59.5
Dee Gordon 52.5
Jose Altuve 39.5
Charlie Blackmon 35.5
Ben Revere 35.5
Billy Burns 32.5
Jacoby Ellsbury 30.5
Starlin Marte 29.5
Delino DeShields 29.5
A.J. Pollock 29.5
Gregory Polanco 25.5
Lorenzo Cain 24.5
Kevin Pillar 24.5

Wins (W)

Player Wins
Clayton Kershaw 18.5
Jake Arietta 16.5
Max Scherzer 15.5
Zach Greinke 15.5
David Price 15.5
Madison Bumgarner 15
Jacob deGrom 14.5
Gerrit Cole 14.5
Stephen Strasburg 14.5
Dallas Keuchel 14.5
Chris Sale 14.5
Felix Hernandez 14.5
Corey Kluber 14
Adam Wainwright 14
Michael Wacha 13.5
Marcus Stroman 13.5
Jose Fernandez 13.5
Jordan Zimmerman 13.5
Jon Lester 13.5
Johnny Cueto 13.5
Garrett Richards 13.5
Colin McHugh 13.5
Cole Hamels 13.5
Carlos Martinez 13.5
Carlos Carrasco 13.5
Chris Archer 13
Yordano Ventura 12.5
Sonny Gray 12.5
R.A. Dickey 12.5
Noah Syndergaard 12.5
Masahiro Tanaka 12.5
Marco Estrada 12.5
Justin Verlander 12.5
James Shields 12.5
Francisco Liriano 12
Tyson Ross 12
John Lackey 12
Gio Gonzalez 12
Jeff Samarzdzija 11.5
Wei-Yin Chen 11.5
Rick Porcello 11.5
Philip Hughes 11.5
Nathan Eovaldi 11.5
Mike Leake 11.5
Michael Pineda 11.5
Kyle Gibson 11.5
Shelby Miller 11.5
J.A. Happ 11.5
Ian Kennedy 11.5
Hisashi Iwakuma 11.5
Ervin Santana 11.5
Edinson Volquez 11.5
Ubaldo Jiminez 11.5
Julio Teheran 11
Tijuan Walker 10.5
Scott Kazmir 10.5
Luis Severino 10.5
Jake Odorizzi 10.5
Colby Lewis 10.5
CJ Wilson 10.5
Bartolo Colon 10.5
Annibal Sanchez 10.5
Andrew Heaney 10.5
Alex Wood 10.5
Trevor Bauer 10
Jorge De La Rosa 10
Jimmy Nelson 10
Jaime Garcia 10
Doug Fister 10
Derrick Holland 10
Anthony DeSclafani 10
Jon Niese 9.5
Clay Bucholz 9.5
Aaron Nola 9.5
Carlos Rondon 9
Jeremy Hellickson 8.5

Saves

Player Saves
Trevor Rosenthal 42.5
Wade Davis 39.5
Mark Melancon 39.5
Kenley Jansen 39.5
Jeurys Familia 39.5
Craig Kimbrel 39.5
Huston Street 38.5
Zach Britton 35.5
David Roberston 35.5
Jonathan Papelbon 35.5
Ken Giles 34.5
Hector Rondon 34.5
Francisco Rodriguez 34.5
Santiago Casilla 30.5
A.J. Ramos 30.5

These are always interesting props to examine, and there are certainly a few totals that seem to be inflated. The first pick offering value is Billy Hamilton under 59.5 steals. There’s no doubt that Hamilton is the fastest and most dangerous base runner in baseball, but he’s also an atrocious hitter. After batting .226 last season, it’s entirely possible that Hamilton could lose his job to Jesse Winker — a 22-year old prospect who hit .282/.390/.433 with 13 homers in Double-A last season.

It also seems like oddsmakers are overrating Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias. Despite batting at least .300 in consecutive seasons, Iglesias is far from an elite hitter. It’s also worth noting that Iglesias was accused of putting personal success ahead of the team, but he has promised to change his behavior this season. Earlier this off-season Iglesias said, “At the end of the day, it’s not about you. It’s about winning.” This change in mentality should help keep his batting average below .290.

In the power department, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is being hugely overvalued. It’s true that he crushed 40 home runs last season, but that was only the second time he’s hit more than 30 home runs in a season. This is a player who has struggled to stay healthy and could be shipped out at the trade deadline. Considering his Coors Field splits (last season he slugged .617 at home and .464 on the road), any trade would likely kill his home run total. Take under 30.5.

We should also point out that these over/under props can be very useful for fantasy baseball players. By comparing these totals to the ESPN projections, we’re able to separate the sleepers from the busts.

One example involves the batting average of Michael Brantley. ESPN has set his projection at .304 but his over/under at Bovada is .295. This information indicates that fantasy managers may want to avoid drafting the Indians outfielder.

Similarly, ESPN’s fantasy experts are projecting 38 home runs from Miguel Sano but the oddsmakers have set his over/under at 29.5. This massive discrepancy once again indicates that fantasy managers will want to look at other options. Astros outfielder George Springer is ranked lower than Sano, but would provide speed as well as comparable power.

Finally, oddsmakers have set the over/under on David Ortiz RBI at 90.5 but the ESPN experts are projecting 102. Perhaps fantasy managers may want to consider selecting Adrian Gonzalez ahead of Big Papi in their upcoming draft.


For the latest lines, betting trends and more, bettors should be sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page. Looking for Best Bets, Bet Signals and valuable features like the line watcher, line predictor and value meter? Sign up for our Early Bird Special and save 40% on five months of our Pro subscription.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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