2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets

2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets

For months we have discussed some of the most popular futures and prop bets in addition to the historically profitable betting systems that we have featured. However, most of the available prop bets were based on picking the winner from the pool whether it’s the odds to lead the league in various statistical categories or win one of the many annual awards.

Earlier this week Bovada became the first major offshore sportsbook to post player performance prop bets. These props allow bettors to wager on the over/under for various statistical milestones. Although they take fairly low limits on this prop, it gives us insight into exactly how well oddsmakers believe players will perform during the upcoming season.

Players need to be on the opening day roster for action, but bettors are able to wager on the over/under for batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins and saves.

Batting Average (BA)

NameBatting Average
Miguel Cabrera.315
Bryce Harper.310
Jose Altuve.305
Andrew McCutchen.305
Mike Trout.305
Buster Posey.305
Robinson Cano.300
Paul Goldschmidt.300
Ben Revere.299
Joe Panik.299
Dee Gordon.295
Mookie Betts.295
A.J. Pollock.295
Adrian Beltre.295
Francisco Lindor.295
Michael Brantley.295
Jose Abreu.290
Joey Votto.290
Eric Hosmer.290
Denard Span.290
Lorenzo Cain.290
Yadier Molina.290
Melky Cabrera.290
Justin Turner.290
Jose Iglesias.290
David Peralta.290
Prince Fielder.290
Josh Donaldson.290
Dustin Pedoria.290
Xander Bogaerts.290
Corey Dickerson.290
Christian Yelich.290
Jason Kipnis.289
Howie Kendrick.289
Stephen Piscotty.285
Joe Mauer.285
Matt Duffy.285
Yasiel Puig.285
Billy Burns.285
David Wright.285
Nolan Arenado.285
Manny Machado.285
D.J. LeMahieu.285
Carlos Correa.285
Matt Carpenter.285
Hanley Ramirez.285
Francisco Cervelli.285
Brandon Phillips.285
Charlie Blackmon.285
Ender Inciarte.285
Adrian Gonzalez.285
Freddie Freeman.285
Victor Martinez.285
Odubel Herrera.280
Anthony Rizzo.280
Corey Seager.280
Yunel Escobar.280
Starlin Marte.280
Josh Harrison.280
Jacoby Ellsbury.280
Giancarlo Stanton.280
Pablo Sandoval.280
JD Martinez.280
Anthony Rendon.280
Troy Tulowitzki.280
Jonathan Lucroy.280
Carlos Gonzalez.280
Gerardo Parra.280
Ryan Braun.280
Nick Markakis.279
Matt Holiday.275
Matt Kemp.275
Adam Jones.275
Kendrys Morales.275
Starlin Castro.275
Ian Kinsler.275
Salvador Perez.275
Jayson Heyward.275
Yoenis Cespedes.275
Albert Pujols.270
Kris Bryant.270
Kolten Wong.270
Ben Zobrist.270
Maikel Franco.270
Michael Conforto.270
Edwin Encarnacion.270
Nelson Cruz.270
David Ortiz.269
Miguel Sano.269
Jose Bautista.265
Yangervis Solarte.265
Josh Reddick.265
Carlos Gomez.265
Kevin Kiermaier.265
George Springer.265
Andrelton Simmons.260
Stephen Vogt.260
Wil Myers.260
Derrick Norris.250

Home Runs (HR)

PlayerHome Runs
Giancarlo Stanton39.5
Chris Davis39.5
Bryce Harper37.5
Mike Trout37.5
Nelson Cruz35.5
Jose Bautista35.5
Nolan Arenado35.5
Josh Donaldson34.5
Jose Abreu33.5
Edwin Encarnacion33.5
Kris Bryant32.5
Paul Goldschmidt32.5
Carlos Gonzalez30.5
Anthony Rizzo30.5
JD Martinez30.5
Carlos Correa29.5
Albert Pujols29.5
Todd Frazier29.5
Miguel Sano29.5
Manny Machado29.5
David Ortiz28.5
Yoenis Cespedes27.5
Miguel Cabrera27.5
Mark Teixeira27.5
Lucas Duda27.5
Chris Carter27.5
Adam Jones27.5
George Springer26.5
Kyle Schwarber25.5
Jay Bruce25.5
Mark Trumbo25.5
Kyle Seager24.5
Adrian Gonzalez24.5
Troy Tulowitzki24.5
Ryan Braun24.5
Randal Grichuk24.5
Prince Fielder24.5
Andrew McCutchen23.5
Brian Dozier23.5
Matt Kemp23.5
Maikel Franco23.5
Kole Calhoun23.5
Justin Bour23.5
Joey Votto23.5
Hunter Pence23.5
Colby Rasmus23.5
Brandon Moss23.5
Brian McCann23.5
Carlos Gomez22.5
Yasiel Puig22.5
Ryan Zimmerman22.5
Luis Valbuena22.5
Freddie Freeman22.5
Evan Longoria22.5
Curtis Granderson22.5
Mitch Moreland21.5
Carlos Santana21.5
Matt Carpenter21.5
Joc Pederson20.5
Brandon Belt20.5
Trevor Plouffe20.5
Rougned Odor20.5
Mike Moustakas20.5
Kendrys Morales20.5
Adrian Beltre19.5
Shin-Soo Choo19.5
Salvador Perez19.5
Robinson Cano19.5
Michael Conforto19.5
Ian Desmond19.5
Hanley Ramirez19.5
Carlos Beltran19.5
Buster Posey19.5
CJ Cron18.5
Ryan Howard18.5
Neil Walker17.5
Mookie Betts17.5
Starlin Marte17.5
Josh Reddick17.5
Eric Hosmer17.5
Charlie Blackmon16.5
Brett Lawrie16.5
Jayson Werth16.5
Adam Lind15.5
Michael Brantley15.5
Justin Turner15.5
Addison Russell15.5
Wilson Ramos15.5
Steven Souza15.5
Stephen Vogt15.5
Russell Martin15.5
Nick Castellanos15.5
Brett Gardner15.5
Logan Forsythe15.5
Daniel Murphy15.5
Jayson Heyward15.5
Francisco Lindor15.5
Domingo Santana15.5
Derrick Norris14.5
A.J. Pollock14.5
Corey Seager14.5
Victor Martinez14.5
Yangervis Solarte13.5
Ian Kinsler13.5
David Wright13.5
Lorenzo Cain13.5
Jose Altuve12.5
Matt Duffy12.5
Brandon Phillips12.5

Runs Batted In (RBI)

PlayerRBI
Nolan Arenado110.5
Miguel Cabrera105.5
Josh Donaldson105.5
Giancarlo Stanton105.5
Chris Davis105.5
Bryce Harper105.5
Kris Bryant105.5
Jose Bautista101.5
Mike Trout101.5
JD Martinez100.5
Edwin Encarnacion100.5
Carlos Gonzalez100.5
Jose Abreu100.5
Anthony Rizzo99.5
Yoenis Cespedes95.5
Carlos Correa95.5
Adrian Gonzalez95.5
Prince Fielder90.5
Nelson Cruz90.5
Manny Machado90.5
David Ortiz90.5
Andrew McCutchen90.5
Todd Frazier89.5
Buster Posey89.5
Albert Pujols89.5
Adam Jones89.5
Miguel Sano89.5
Ryan Braun85.5
Matt Kemp85.5
Hunter Pence85.5
Evan Longoria85.5
Michael Brantley84.5
Robinson Cano82.5
Jay Bruce82.5
Freddie Freeman82.5
Eric Hosmer80.5
Yasiel Puig80.5
Troy Tulowitzki80.5
Trevor Plouffe80.5
Maikel Franco80.5
Lucas Duda80.5
Adrian Beltre80.5
Alex Rodriguez80.5
Carlos Santana80.5
Kyle Seager80.5
Kendrys Morales80.5
Kyle Schwarber80.5
Ryan Zimmerman79.5
Mark Teixeira79.5
George Springer79.5
Justin Bour79.5
Kole Calhoun77.5
Starlin Marte77.5
Mitch Moreland75.5
Mike Moustakas75.5
Matt Carpenter75.5
Mookie Betts75.5
Chris Carter75.5
Carlos Gomez75.5
Daniel Murphy75.5
Joey Votto72.5
Brandon Belt72.5
Salvador Perez70.5
Ryan Howard70.5
Rougned Odor70.5
Randal Grichuk70.5
Neil Walker70.5
Matt Duffy70.5
Jayson Werth70.5
Francisco Lindor70.5
Corey Seager70.5
Brian Dozier70.5
Adam Lind70.5
CJ Cron69.5
Wilson Ramos69.5
Logan Forsythe69.5
Josh Reddick69.5
Jayson Heyward69.5
Ian Desmond69.5
Lorenzo Cain69.5
Brandon Phillips69.5
Stephen Vogt65.5
Russell Martin65.5
Carlos Beltran65.5
David Wright64.5
Michael Conforto60.5
Steven Souza60.5
Jose Altuve59.5

Steals (SB)

PlayerSteals
Billy Hamilton59.5
Dee Gordon52.5
Jose Altuve39.5
Charlie Blackmon35.5
Ben Revere35.5
Billy Burns32.5
Jacoby Ellsbury30.5
Starlin Marte29.5
Delino DeShields29.5
A.J. Pollock29.5
Gregory Polanco25.5
Lorenzo Cain24.5
Kevin Pillar24.5

Wins (W)

PlayerWins
Clayton Kershaw18.5
Jake Arietta16.5
Max Scherzer15.5
Zach Greinke15.5
David Price15.5
Madison Bumgarner15
Jacob deGrom14.5
Gerrit Cole14.5
Stephen Strasburg14.5
Dallas Keuchel14.5
Chris Sale14.5
Felix Hernandez14.5
Corey Kluber14
Adam Wainwright14
Michael Wacha13.5
Marcus Stroman13.5
Jose Fernandez13.5
Jordan Zimmerman13.5
Jon Lester13.5
Johnny Cueto13.5
Garrett Richards13.5
Colin McHugh13.5
Cole Hamels13.5
Carlos Martinez13.5
Carlos Carrasco13.5
Chris Archer13
Yordano Ventura12.5
Sonny Gray12.5
R.A. Dickey12.5
Noah Syndergaard12.5
Masahiro Tanaka12.5
Marco Estrada12.5
Justin Verlander12.5
James Shields12.5
Francisco Liriano12
Tyson Ross12
John Lackey12
Gio Gonzalez12
Jeff Samarzdzija11.5
Wei-Yin Chen11.5
Rick Porcello11.5
Philip Hughes11.5
Nathan Eovaldi11.5
Mike Leake11.5
Michael Pineda11.5
Kyle Gibson11.5
Shelby Miller11.5
J.A. Happ11.5
Ian Kennedy11.5
Hisashi Iwakuma11.5
Ervin Santana11.5
Edinson Volquez11.5
Ubaldo Jiminez11.5
Julio Teheran11
Tijuan Walker10.5
Scott Kazmir10.5
Luis Severino10.5
Jake Odorizzi10.5
Colby Lewis10.5
CJ Wilson10.5
Bartolo Colon10.5
Annibal Sanchez10.5
Andrew Heaney10.5
Alex Wood10.5
Trevor Bauer10
Jorge De La Rosa10
Jimmy Nelson10
Jaime Garcia10
Doug Fister10
Derrick Holland10
Anthony DeSclafani10
Jon Niese9.5
Clay Bucholz9.5
Aaron Nola9.5
Carlos Rondon9
Jeremy Hellickson8.5

Saves

PlayerSaves
Trevor Rosenthal42.5
Wade Davis39.5
Mark Melancon39.5
Kenley Jansen39.5
Jeurys Familia39.5
Craig Kimbrel39.5
Huston Street38.5
Zach Britton35.5
David Roberston35.5
Jonathan Papelbon35.5
Ken Giles34.5
Hector Rondon34.5
Francisco Rodriguez34.5
Santiago Casilla30.5
A.J. Ramos30.5

These are always interesting props to examine, and there are certainly a few totals that seem to be inflated. The first pick offering value is Billy Hamilton under 59.5 steals. There’s no doubt that Hamilton is the fastest and most dangerous base runner in baseball, but he’s also an atrocious hitter. After batting .226 last season, it’s entirely possible that Hamilton could lose his job to Jesse Winker — a 22-year old prospect who hit .282/.390/.433 with 13 homers in Double-A last season.

It also seems like oddsmakers are overrating Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias. Despite batting at least .300 in consecutive seasons, Iglesias is far from an elite hitter. It’s also worth noting that Iglesias was accused of putting personal success ahead of the team, but he has promised to change his behavior this season. Earlier this off-season Iglesias said, “At the end of the day, it’s not about you. It’s about winning.” This change in mentality should help keep his batting average below .290.

In the power department, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is being hugely overvalued. It’s true that he crushed 40 home runs last season, but that was only the second time he’s hit more than 30 home runs in a season. This is a player who has struggled to stay healthy and could be shipped out at the trade deadline. Considering his Coors Field splits (last season he slugged .617 at home and .464 on the road), any trade would likely kill his home run total. Take under 30.5.

We should also point out that these over/under props can be very useful for fantasy baseball players. By comparing these totals to the ESPN projections, we’re able to separate the sleepers from the busts.

One example involves the batting average of Michael Brantley. ESPN has set his projection at .304 but his over/under at Bovada is .295. This information indicates that fantasy managers may want to avoid drafting the Indians outfielder.

Similarly, ESPN’s fantasy experts are projecting 38 home runs from Miguel Sano but the oddsmakers have set his over/under at 29.5. This massive discrepancy once again indicates that fantasy managers will want to look at other options. Astros outfielder George Springer is ranked lower than Sano, but would provide speed as well as comparable power.

Finally, oddsmakers have set the over/under on David Ortiz RBI at 90.5 but the ESPN experts are projecting 102. Perhaps fantasy managers may want to consider selecting Adrian Gonzalez ahead of Big Papi in their upcoming draft.


For the latest lines, betting trends and more, bettors should be sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page. Looking for Best Bets, Bet Signals and valuable features like the line watcher, line predictor and value meter? Sign up for our Early Bird Special and save 40% on five months of our Pro subscription.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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