2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets

2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets

For months we have discussed some of the most popular futures and prop bets in addition to the historically profitable betting systems that we have featured. However, most of the available prop bets were based on picking the winner from the pool whether it’s the odds to lead the league in various statistical categories or win one of the many annual awards.

Earlier this week Bovada became the first major offshore sportsbook to post player performance prop bets. These props allow bettors to wager on the over/under for various statistical milestones. Although they take fairly low limits on this prop, it gives us insight into exactly how well oddsmakers believe players will perform during the upcoming season.

Players need to be on the opening day roster for action, but bettors are able to wager on the over/under for batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins and saves.

Batting Average (BA)

Name	Batting Average
Miguel Cabrera	.315
Bryce Harper	.310
Jose Altuve	.305
Andrew McCutchen	.305
Mike Trout	.305
Buster Posey	.305
Robinson Cano	.300
Paul Goldschmidt	.300
Ben Revere	.299
Joe Panik	.299
Dee Gordon	.295
Mookie Betts	.295
A.J. Pollock	.295
Adrian Beltre	.295
Francisco Lindor	.295
Michael Brantley	.295
Jose Abreu	.290
Joey Votto	.290
Eric Hosmer	.290
Denard Span	.290
Lorenzo Cain	.290
Yadier Molina	.290
Melky Cabrera	.290
Justin Turner	.290
Jose Iglesias	.290
David Peralta	.290
Prince Fielder	.290
Josh Donaldson	.290
Dustin Pedoria	.290
Xander Bogaerts	.290
Corey Dickerson	.290
Christian Yelich	.290
Jason Kipnis	.289
Howie Kendrick	.289
Stephen Piscotty	.285
Joe Mauer	.285
Matt Duffy	.285
Yasiel Puig	.285
Billy Burns	.285
David Wright	.285
Nolan Arenado	.285
Manny Machado	.285
D.J. LeMahieu	.285
Carlos Correa	.285
Matt Carpenter	.285
Hanley Ramirez	.285
Francisco Cervelli	.285
Brandon Phillips	.285
Charlie Blackmon	.285
Ender Inciarte	.285
Adrian Gonzalez	.285
Freddie Freeman	.285
Victor Martinez	.285
Odubel Herrera	.280
Anthony Rizzo	.280
Corey Seager	.280
Yunel Escobar	.280
Starlin Marte	.280
Josh Harrison	.280
Jacoby Ellsbury	.280
Giancarlo Stanton	.280
Pablo Sandoval	.280
JD Martinez	.280
Anthony Rendon	.280
Troy Tulowitzki	.280
Jonathan Lucroy	.280
Carlos Gonzalez	.280
Gerardo Parra	.280
Ryan Braun	.280
Nick Markakis	.279
Matt Holiday	.275
Matt Kemp	.275
Adam Jones	.275
Kendrys Morales	.275
Starlin Castro	.275
Ian Kinsler	.275
Salvador Perez	.275
Jayson Heyward	.275
Yoenis Cespedes	.275
Albert Pujols	.270
Kris Bryant	.270
Kolten Wong	.270
Ben Zobrist	.270
Maikel Franco	.270
Michael Conforto	.270
Edwin Encarnacion	.270
Nelson Cruz	.270
David Ortiz	.269
Miguel Sano	.269
Jose Bautista	.265
Yangervis Solarte	.265
Josh Reddick	.265
Carlos Gomez	.265
Kevin Kiermaier	.265
George Springer	.265
Andrelton Simmons	.260
Stephen Vogt	.260
Wil Myers	.260
Derrick Norris	.250

Home Runs (HR)

Player	Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton	39.5
Chris Davis	39.5
Bryce Harper	37.5
Mike Trout	37.5
Nelson Cruz	35.5
Jose Bautista	35.5
Nolan Arenado	35.5
Josh Donaldson	34.5
Jose Abreu	33.5
Edwin Encarnacion	33.5
Kris Bryant	32.5
Paul Goldschmidt	32.5
Carlos Gonzalez	30.5
Anthony Rizzo	30.5
JD Martinez	30.5
Carlos Correa	29.5
Albert Pujols	29.5
Todd Frazier	29.5
Miguel Sano	29.5
Manny Machado	29.5
David Ortiz	28.5
Yoenis Cespedes	27.5
Miguel Cabrera	27.5
Mark Teixeira	27.5
Lucas Duda	27.5
Chris Carter	27.5
Adam Jones	27.5
George Springer	26.5
Kyle Schwarber	25.5
Jay Bruce	25.5
Mark Trumbo	25.5
Kyle Seager	24.5
Adrian Gonzalez	24.5
Troy Tulowitzki	24.5
Ryan Braun	24.5
Randal Grichuk	24.5
Prince Fielder	24.5
Andrew McCutchen	23.5
Brian Dozier	23.5
Matt Kemp	23.5
Maikel Franco	23.5
Kole Calhoun	23.5
Justin Bour	23.5
Joey Votto	23.5
Hunter Pence	23.5
Colby Rasmus	23.5
Brandon Moss	23.5
Brian McCann	23.5
Carlos Gomez	22.5
Yasiel Puig	22.5
Ryan Zimmerman	22.5
Luis Valbuena	22.5
Freddie Freeman	22.5
Evan Longoria	22.5
Curtis Granderson	22.5
Mitch Moreland	21.5
Carlos Santana	21.5
Matt Carpenter	21.5
Joc Pederson	20.5
Brandon Belt	20.5
Trevor Plouffe	20.5
Rougned Odor	20.5
Mike Moustakas	20.5
Kendrys Morales	20.5
Adrian Beltre	19.5
Shin-Soo Choo	19.5
Salvador Perez	19.5
Robinson Cano	19.5
Michael Conforto	19.5
Ian Desmond	19.5
Hanley Ramirez	19.5
Carlos Beltran	19.5
Buster Posey	19.5
CJ Cron	18.5
Ryan Howard	18.5
Neil Walker	17.5
Mookie Betts	17.5
Starlin Marte	17.5
Josh Reddick	17.5
Eric Hosmer	17.5
Charlie Blackmon	16.5
Brett Lawrie	16.5
Jayson Werth	16.5
Adam Lind	15.5
Michael Brantley	15.5
Justin Turner	15.5
Addison Russell	15.5
Wilson Ramos	15.5
Steven Souza	15.5
Stephen Vogt	15.5
Russell Martin	15.5
Nick Castellanos	15.5
Brett Gardner	15.5
Logan Forsythe	15.5
Daniel Murphy	15.5
Jayson Heyward	15.5
Francisco Lindor	15.5
Domingo Santana	15.5
Derrick Norris	14.5
A.J. Pollock	14.5
Corey Seager	14.5
Victor Martinez	14.5
Yangervis Solarte	13.5
Ian Kinsler	13.5
David Wright	13.5
Lorenzo Cain	13.5
Jose Altuve	12.5
Matt Duffy	12.5
Brandon Phillips	12.5

Runs Batted In (RBI)

Player	RBI
Nolan Arenado	110.5
Miguel Cabrera	105.5
Josh Donaldson	105.5
Giancarlo Stanton	105.5
Chris Davis	105.5
Bryce Harper	105.5
Kris Bryant	105.5
Jose Bautista	101.5
Mike Trout	101.5
JD Martinez	100.5
Edwin Encarnacion	100.5
Carlos Gonzalez	100.5
Jose Abreu	100.5
Anthony Rizzo	99.5
Yoenis Cespedes	95.5
Carlos Correa	95.5
Adrian Gonzalez	95.5
Prince Fielder	90.5
Nelson Cruz	90.5
Manny Machado	90.5
David Ortiz	90.5
Andrew McCutchen	90.5
Todd Frazier	89.5
Buster Posey	89.5
Albert Pujols	89.5
Adam Jones	89.5
Miguel Sano	89.5
Ryan Braun	85.5
Matt Kemp	85.5
Hunter Pence	85.5
Evan Longoria	85.5
Michael Brantley	84.5
Robinson Cano	82.5
Jay Bruce	82.5
Freddie Freeman	82.5
Eric Hosmer	80.5
Yasiel Puig	80.5
Troy Tulowitzki	80.5
Trevor Plouffe	80.5
Maikel Franco	80.5
Lucas Duda	80.5
Adrian Beltre	80.5
Alex Rodriguez	80.5
Carlos Santana	80.5
Kyle Seager	80.5
Kendrys Morales	80.5
Kyle Schwarber	80.5
Ryan Zimmerman	79.5
Mark Teixeira	79.5
George Springer	79.5
Justin Bour	79.5
Kole Calhoun	77.5
Starlin Marte	77.5
Mitch Moreland	75.5
Mike Moustakas	75.5
Matt Carpenter	75.5
Mookie Betts	75.5
Chris Carter	75.5
Carlos Gomez	75.5
Daniel Murphy	75.5
Joey Votto	72.5
Brandon Belt	72.5
Salvador Perez	70.5
Ryan Howard	70.5
Rougned Odor	70.5
Randal Grichuk	70.5
Neil Walker	70.5
Matt Duffy	70.5
Jayson Werth	70.5
Francisco Lindor	70.5
Corey Seager	70.5
Brian Dozier	70.5
Adam Lind	70.5
CJ Cron	69.5
Wilson Ramos	69.5
Logan Forsythe	69.5
Josh Reddick	69.5
Jayson Heyward	69.5
Ian Desmond	69.5
Lorenzo Cain	69.5
Brandon Phillips	69.5
Stephen Vogt	65.5
Russell Martin	65.5
Carlos Beltran	65.5
David Wright	64.5
Michael Conforto	60.5
Steven Souza	60.5
Jose Altuve	59.5

Steals (SB)

Player	Steals
Billy Hamilton	59.5
Dee Gordon	52.5
Jose Altuve	39.5
Charlie Blackmon	35.5
Ben Revere	35.5
Billy Burns	32.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	30.5
Starlin Marte	29.5
Delino DeShields	29.5
A.J. Pollock	29.5
Gregory Polanco	25.5
Lorenzo Cain	24.5
Kevin Pillar	24.5

Wins (W)

Player	Wins
Clayton Kershaw	18.5
Jake Arietta	16.5
Max Scherzer	15.5
Zach Greinke	15.5
David Price	15.5
Madison Bumgarner	15
Jacob deGrom	14.5
Gerrit Cole	14.5
Stephen Strasburg	14.5
Dallas Keuchel	14.5
Chris Sale	14.5
Felix Hernandez	14.5
Corey Kluber	14
Adam Wainwright	14
Michael Wacha	13.5
Marcus Stroman	13.5
Jose Fernandez	13.5
Jordan Zimmerman	13.5
Jon Lester	13.5
Johnny Cueto	13.5
Garrett Richards	13.5
Colin McHugh	13.5
Cole Hamels	13.5
Carlos Martinez	13.5
Carlos Carrasco	13.5
Chris Archer	13
Yordano Ventura	12.5
Sonny Gray	12.5
R.A. Dickey	12.5
Noah Syndergaard	12.5
Masahiro Tanaka	12.5
Marco Estrada	12.5
Justin Verlander	12.5
James Shields	12.5
Francisco Liriano	12
Tyson Ross	12
John Lackey	12
Gio Gonzalez	12
Jeff Samarzdzija	11.5
Wei-Yin Chen	11.5
Rick Porcello	11.5
Philip Hughes	11.5
Nathan Eovaldi	11.5
Mike Leake	11.5
Michael Pineda	11.5
Kyle Gibson	11.5
Shelby Miller	11.5
J.A. Happ	11.5
Ian Kennedy	11.5
Hisashi Iwakuma	11.5
Ervin Santana	11.5
Edinson Volquez	11.5
Ubaldo Jiminez	11.5
Julio Teheran	11
Tijuan Walker	10.5
Scott Kazmir	10.5
Luis Severino	10.5
Jake Odorizzi	10.5
Colby Lewis	10.5
CJ Wilson	10.5
Bartolo Colon	10.5
Annibal Sanchez	10.5
Andrew Heaney	10.5
Alex Wood	10.5
Trevor Bauer	10
Jorge De La Rosa	10
Jimmy Nelson	10
Jaime Garcia	10
Doug Fister	10
Derrick Holland	10
Anthony DeSclafani	10
Jon Niese	9.5
Clay Bucholz	9.5
Aaron Nola	9.5
Carlos Rondon	9
Jeremy Hellickson	8.5

Saves

Player	Saves
Trevor Rosenthal	42.5
Wade Davis	39.5
Mark Melancon	39.5
Kenley Jansen	39.5
Jeurys Familia	39.5
Craig Kimbrel	39.5
Huston Street	38.5
Zach Britton	35.5
David Roberston	35.5
Jonathan Papelbon	35.5
Ken Giles	34.5
Hector Rondon	34.5
Francisco Rodriguez	34.5
Santiago Casilla	30.5
A.J. Ramos	30.5

These are always interesting props to examine, and there are certainly a few totals that seem to be inflated. The first pick offering value is Billy Hamilton under 59.5 steals. There’s no doubt that Hamilton is the fastest and most dangerous base runner in baseball, but he’s also an atrocious hitter. After batting .226 last season, it’s entirely possible that Hamilton could lose his job to Jesse Winker — a 22-year old prospect who hit .282/.390/.433 with 13 homers in Double-A last season.

It also seems like oddsmakers are overrating Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias. Despite batting at least .300 in consecutive seasons, Iglesias is far from an elite hitter. It’s also worth noting that Iglesias was accused of putting personal success ahead of the team, but he has promised to change his behavior this season. Earlier this off-season Iglesias said, “At the end of the day, it’s not about you. It’s about winning.” This change in mentality should help keep his batting average below .290.

In the power department, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is being hugely overvalued. It’s true that he crushed 40 home runs last season, but that was only the second time he’s hit more than 30 home runs in a season. This is a player who has struggled to stay healthy and could be shipped out at the trade deadline. Considering his Coors Field splits (last season he slugged .617 at home and .464 on the road), any trade would likely kill his home run total. Take under 30.5.

We should also point out that these over/under props can be very useful for fantasy baseball players. By comparing these totals to the ESPN projections, we’re able to separate the sleepers from the busts.

One example involves the batting average of Michael Brantley. ESPN has set his projection at .304 but his over/under at Bovada is .295. This information indicates that fantasy managers may want to avoid drafting the Indians outfielder.

Similarly, ESPN’s fantasy experts are projecting 38 home runs from Miguel Sano but the oddsmakers have set his over/under at 29.5. This massive discrepancy once again indicates that fantasy managers will want to look at other options. Astros outfielder George Springer is ranked lower than Sano, but would provide speed as well as comparable power.

Finally, oddsmakers have set the over/under on David Ortiz RBI at 90.5 but the ESPN experts are projecting 102. Perhaps fantasy managers may want to consider selecting Adrian Gonzalez ahead of Big Papi in their upcoming draft.

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