2016 March Madness: Odds to Win Each Region
Earlier this morning, Bovada posted odds for every tournament team to win their region. Just a few hours later, the Las Vegas-based Westgate posted their own odds with several major discrepancies.
The most obvious difference was that the favorite odds were much shorter and the lower-seeds were even bigger ‘dogs at the Westgate. There was also significant disagreement in the West Region where the Westgate had Oregon (+200) listed as the favorite and Bovada had Oklahoma (+225) listed as the favorite.
The table below displays the current odds and will be updated as new information becomes available.
Odds to Win the East Region
| School | Bovada (3/14) | Westgate (3/14) |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | +200 | +110 |
| West Virginia | +400 | +400 |
| Kentucky | +500 | +400 |
| Xavier | +600 | +700 |
| Indiana | +800 | +700 |
| Notre Dame | +1200 | +2500 |
| Wisconsin | +1200 | +2500 |
| Pittsburgh | +2000 | +4000 |
| Providence | +2500 | +3000 |
| Michigan | +3300 | +8000 |
| USC | +3300 | +3000 |
| Stephen F. Austin | +10000 | +6000 |
| Tulsa | +10000 | +20000 |
| Chattanooga | +15000 | +30000 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | +25000 | +300000 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | +25000 | +300000 |
| Stony Brook | +25000 | +20000 |
| Weber State | +25000 | +50000 |
Odds to Win the Midwest Region
| School | Bovada (3/14) | Westgate (3/14) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | +175 | +140 |
| Virginia | +250 | +180 |
| Purdue | +600 | +600 |
| Iowa State | +750 | +1200 |
| Utah | +900 | +1200 |
| Gonzaga | +1200 | +1500 |
| Butler | +2000 | +3000 |
| Seton Hall | +2000 | +1200 |
| Dayton | +2500 | +3000 |
| Syracuse | +2500 | +3000 |
| Texas Tech | +4000 | +6000 |
| Iona | +10000 | +30000 |
| Arkansas Little Rock | +10000 | +10000 |
| Fresno State | +25000 | +50000 |
| Hampton | +25000 | +300000 |
| Middle Tennessee State | +25000 | +50000 |
Odds to Win the South Region
| School | Bovada (3/14) | Westgate (3/14) |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +150 | +100 |
| Villanova | +300 | +300 |
| Miami Florida | +750 | +800 |
| Maryland | +1000 | +1000 |
| Iowa | +1200 | +1800 |
| Arizona | +1200 | +1000 |
| California | +1200 | +1000 |
| UConn | +1400 | +2000 |
| Wichita State | +1600 | +2000 |
| Vanderbilt | +3300 | +4000 |
| Colorado | +5000 | +10000 |
| Temple | +6600 | +10000 |
| Hawaii | +15000 | +30000 |
| Austin Peay | +25000 | +300000 |
| Buffalo | +25000 | +50000 |
| South Dakota State | +25000 | +30000 |
| UNC Ashville | +25000 | +50000 |
Odds to Win the West Region
| School | Bovada (3/14) | Westgate (3/14) |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | +225 | +225 |
| Oregon | +325 | +200 |
| Duke | +450 | +600 |
| Texas A&M | +600 | +500 |
| Texas | +750 | +800 |
| Baylor | +1000 | +800 |
| Cincinnati | +1400 | +2000 |
| VCU | +2500 | +2000 |
| St. Joe's | +2500 | +4000 |
| Oregon State | +4000 | +8000 |
| Northern Iowa | +6600 | +10000 |
| Yale | +6600 | +5000 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | +15000 | +100000 |
| UNC Wilmington | +15000 | +10000 |
| Green Bay | +25000 | +100000 |
| Holy Cross | +25000 | +500000 |
| Southern U | +25000 | +300000 |
It’s interesting to see that Michigan State (+175) is listed as the favorite to win the Midwest Region even though Virginia (+200) earned the top seed. For what it’s worth, our bracket simulator actually gives Michigan State (34.0%) a higher probability of reaching the Final Four than Virginia (30.8%).
Similarly, Oklahoma (+225) is listed as the favorite to win the West Region even though Oregon (+325) earned the top seed. These futures are backed up by our bracket simulator results which give Oklahoma (24.3%) a higher probability of reaching the Final Four than Oregon (19.6%).
Kansas (+150) is viewed as the biggest “lock” to earn a spot in the Final Four, which is useful information for everybody building their bracket. According to our bracket simulator analysis, Kansas has the highest probability (34.6%) of winning their region.
With such a high juice it’s quite difficult to find value, but three-seed Texas A&M (+600) seems like a decent bet to win the West Region. Our numbers indicate that the Aggies should be listed at +475 to win their region and that they have a greater probability of reaching the Final Four than the West’s four-seed: Duke (+450).
Which teams do you think are offering value? Will any sleepers reach the Final Four? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com
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