2016 March Madness: NCAAB Futures Offering Value

Last month when we first released our bracket simulator, we identified several teams whose odds of winning the national championship were being undervalued. By combining information from our historical database along with data from well-respected basketball sources including ESPN, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin, we were able to create our own title probabilities and check for discrepancies in the futures market.

The 68-team field for the 2016 NCAA Tournament was set last night, and we immediately ran one million simulations to determine the probability for each team to win the national championship. Although most sportsbooks still haven’t posted updated college basketball futures, early on Monday morning The Greek became the first prominent offshore book to post title odds.

We should note that the sum of these implied probabilities is 160%, which equates to an extremely jacked up -160 juice. Other sportsbooks should begin posting their own futures shortly, and bettors should be sure to shop for the best line before placing any wagers.

School Greek (3/14) Implied Probability Bracket Simulator Value
West Virginia +3000 3.23% 5.20% 1.612
Texas A&M +4000 2.44% 3.30% 1.353
Virginia +1200 7.69% 10.40% 1.352
Villanova +1200 7.69% 7.60% 0.988
Oklahoma +1500 6.25% 6.00% 0.96
Xavier +2500 3.85% 3.00% 0.78
Kansas +500 16.67% 12.60% 0.756
Yale +75000 0.13% 0.10% 0.751
Michigan St +500 16.67% 12.20% 0.732
Iowa +6500 1.52% 1.10% 0.726
Miami FL +3000 3.23% 2.20% 0.682
North Carolina +500 16.67% 11.30% 0.678
Purdue +3000 3.23% 2.10% 0.651
Indiana +3500 2.78% 1.80% 0.648
Iowa St +4000 2.44% 1.50% 0.615
Oregon +1500 6.25% 3.80% 0.608
Gonzaga +10000 0.99% 0.60% 0.606
Arizona +3500 2.78% 1.40% 0.504
Stephen F Austin +50000 0.20% 0.10% 0.501
Baylor +5000 1.96% 0.90% 0.459
Duke +1800 5.26% 2.30% 0.437
Maryland +3000 3.23% 1.40% 0.434
Cincinnati +10000 0.99% 0.40% 0.404
St Josephs +20000 0.50% 0.20% 0.402
UConn +5000 1.96% 0.60% 0.306
Butler +15000 0.66% 0.20% 0.302
Texas Tech +30000 0.33% 0.10% 0.301
Kentucky +800 11.11% 3.20% 0.288
Texas +5000 1.96% 0.50% 0.255
Seton Hall +5000 1.96% 0.50% 0.255
Utah +3000 3.23% 0.70% 0.217
Wichita St +5000 1.96% 0.40% 0.204
Vanderbilt +10000 0.99% 0.20% 0.202
Colorado +20000 0.50% 0.10% 0.201
Pittsburgh +20000 0.50% 0.10% 0.201
California +1500 6.25% 1.00% 0.16
Wisconsin +6500 1.52% 0.20% 0.132
Notre Dame +5000 1.96% 0.20% 0.102
Dayton +10000 0.99% 0.10% 0.101
Providence +5000 1.96% 0.10% 0.051
Field +5000 1.96% N/A N/A
Oregon St +15000 0.66% <0.1% N/A
Michigan +15000 0.66% <0.1% N/A
Syracuse +20000 0.50% <0.1% N/A
USC +20000 0.50% <0.1% N/A
VCU +20000 0.50% <0.1% N/A
Northern Iowa +35000 0.28% <0.1% N/A
Temple +50000 0.20% <0.1% N/A
Hawaii +50000 0.20% <0.1% N/A
Chattanooga +50000 0.20% <0.1% N/A
Fresno St +50000 0.20% <0.1% N/A
Tulsa +50000 0.20% <0.1% N/A
Green Bay +75000 0.13% <0.1% N/A

Kansas, Michigan State and North Carolina (+500) are the co-favorites to win the championship, which seems to validate the public sentiment that Michigan State was more deserving of the final number one seed than Oregon. It’s particularly interesting to see that the Ducks (+1500) are tied for the seventh-best odds of winning the title, while our bracket simulator indicates that they should be even lower at +2500.

Despite landing a four-seed, Kentucky (+800) has the fourth best odds of winning the national championship. Oddsmakers understand that Kentucky is one of the most popular teams among casual bettors, and their lines are artificially inflated to account for the inevitable influx of public money. The bracket simulator indicates that John Calipari’s squad should be listed at closer to +3000.

Our analysis indicates that there are only three teams offering value — Texas A&M (+4000), Virginia (+1200) and West Virginia (+3000). According to our simulations the Aggies should be +2930, the Cavaliers should be +861 and West Virginia should be +1823. In our previous article, we had pinpointed value on Virginia (+1800) and West Virginia (+2300). One month ago Texas A&M was still listed at +4000, but they benefited from a recent hot streak and a relatively weak region.

This season our college basketball Best Bets have gone 167-133 ATS with +20.6 units won. These picks are exclusively available to our Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers, so make sure to sign up for the extended 7-day trial. Schedule a one-on-one demo and we’ll tack on four additional days for free!

Bettors should also be sure to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com

 

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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