2016 Golden Globe Odds
The 2016 Golden Globes will take place at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California on Sunday, January 10 at 8:00 PM eastern time. This marks the 73rd year of the ceremony, which will be hosted by Ricky Gervais.
Awards will be handed out in 25 categories — 14 for film and 11 for television. “Carol” led all films with five nominations followed by “Steve Jobs”, “The Big Short” and “The Revenant” which landed four nominations apiece. “American Crime”, “Fargo”, “Mr. Robot”, “Outlander”, “Transparent” and “Wolf Hall” led all television shows with three nominations each.
Earlier this week Bovada, one of the most popular offshore sportsbooks, posted odds for eleven of the fourteen film categories — omitting Best Screenplay, Best Original Score and Best Original Song.
These odds can be a useful tool for anybody competing in a Golden Globes pool, especially because there are four categories where oddsmakers are fairly certain about tomorrow night’s winner.
Golden Globe "Locks"
Animated Film: Inside Out -2000
Foreign Film: Son of Saul -1000
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio -1000
Drama: Spotlight -600
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) January 9, 2016
The tables below display the current odds for eleven major film categories, plus one bonus prop bet.
Best Picture Drama
|Mad Max: Fury Road||+1600|
Best Picture Musical or Comedy
|The Big Short||-200|
Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama
|Leonardo DiCaprio||The Revenant||-1000|
|Michael Fassbender||Steve Jobs||+550|
|Eddie Redmayne||The Danish Girl||+1200|
Best Actor In A Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
|Matt Damon||The Martian||-600|
|Christian Bale||The Big Short||+500|
|Steve Carell||The Big Short||+1200|
|Al Pacino||Danny Collins||+1200|
|Mark Ruffalo||Infinitely Polar Bear||+2500|
Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama
|Alicia Vikander||The Danish Girl||+3000|
Best Actress In A Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
|Maggie Smith||The Lady in the Van||+2000|
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
|Mark Rylance||Bridge of Spies||+225|
|Idris Elba||Beasts of No Nation||+550|
|Michael Shannon||99 Homes||+1200|
|Paul Dano||Love & Mercy||+3300|
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
|Jennifer Jason Leigh||The Hateful Eight||+100|
|Alicia Vikander||Ex Machina||+100|
|Kate Winslet||Steve Jobs||+1200|
|Ridley Scott||The Martian||+100|
|Alejandro Inarritu||The Revenant||+275|
|George Miller||Mad Max: Fury Road||+350|
Best Animated Feature
|The Good Dinosaur||+1000|
|The Peanuts Movie||+2500|
|Shaun the Sheep Movie||+3300|
Best Foreign Language Film
|Son of Saul||Hungary||-1000|
|The Brand New Testament||Belgium/France/Luxembourg||+1400|
Special: Who will Ricky Gervais mention first?
It’s interesting to note that there has been some recent movement with “The Big Short” (-200) surpassing “The Martian” (+175) as the favorite to win Best Picture (Musical/Comedy). That move seems largely due to public money, as many movie-goers have recently seen “The Big Short” and could be suffering from a recency bias.
We have also seen “Spotlight’s” odds of winning Best Picture (Drama) surge dramatically. The film follows The Boston Globe’s investigation into the widespread child sex abuse by the Catholic Church, and opened as a +300 co-favorite to win Best Picture alongside “The Revenant.” A month later, “Spotlight” had jumped from +300 to -150 while “The Revenant” had dropped from +300 to +400. Three weeks later, Spotlight was the clear cut front runner at -600.
In this year’s field finding value can be quite difficult, but there are a few potential categories worth monitoring. My favorite value picks are listed below.
- Best Actress In A Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: Amy Schumer for “Trainwreck” (-120)
- Best Director: George Miller for “Mad Max: Fury Road” (+350)
- Best Animated Feature: “Anomolisa” (+900)
- Best Picture Musical or Comedy: “The Martian” (+175)
Who do you think will be the big winners on Sunday night? Which movies were overlooked by the Hollywood Foreign Press this year? Please leave any thoughts or questions in the comment section below.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.