2016 College Football: Week 6 Betting Recap

2016 College Football: Week 6 Betting Recap

Week 6 of the College Football season is nearly over with 2 games to be played on Sunday due to Hurricane Matthew. Conference play really amped up this week and we’ve highlighted all that happened below.

Week 6 Trends via BetLabsSports.com
Road: 28-22 ATS
Dogs: 33-18 ATS
Dogs went 18-33 SU for +13.02 units on the moneyline
Less than 30% of spread tickets: 11-6 ATS

NCAAF underdogs went 18-33 for +13.02 units on the moneyline in Week 6 with two games to be played today.
Oddly enough, underdogs also went 33-18 ATS for +13.02 units. Betting every dog blindly on the spread or ML earned the exact same amount.

Biggest Moneyline Upsets

Navy +704 v Houston
UTSA +638 v So Miss
Wyoming +447 v Air Force
North Texas +411 v Marshall

Betting Nuggets

Hurricane Matthew had a big effect on games this week, with a number of postponements and changed game times. It also contributed to moving totals quite a bit: Va Tech/UNC total dropped from 66.5 to 54.5 (69% of tickets on Over, 56% of money on Under), and Notre Dame/NC State total dropped from 68.5 to 57.5 (68% of tickets on Over, 71% of money on Under). Both games easily went under the closing totals.

Notre Dame/NC State was the most bet day game on Saturday, and saw NC State move from +1.5 to -2.5 by kickoff despite receiving only 28% of tickets. This was a clear example of sharper money on the Wolfpack as they won 10-3 on a blocked punt return. They also had to play in this:

Late kicks played a big part around the country: Pitt and TCU both hit field goals in the last 2 minutes to beat Georgia Tech and Kansas respectively, and then there was also FSU blocking a Miami extra point:

Southern Miss/UTSA went over the closing game total of 53 with more than 3 mins left in the 2nd quarter, and went over the opening game total of 58 by halftime, where UTSA led 38-21.

Selling High: The 5 best teams ATS so far this year heading into Week 6 went 1-4 ATS (Colorado, Miami FL, Toledo, Ohio St, Western Michigan).

Buying Low: The 5 worst teams ATS so far this year heading into Week 6 went 3-2 ATS (UConn, Ark St, Bowling Green, Oregon, FAU).

Follow the Money: Teams getting <40% tickets but >60% money at William Hill (indicating sharper money): Va Tech, NC State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Fresno, Idaho, NIU. Of these teams, only Oklahoma failed to cover (6-1 ATS).

Oregon failed to cover as a dog for the first time since 2009 (7-0-1 ATS), losing 70-21 to Washington. At William Hill, 5 of the 9 biggest bets they took on Saturday was on Washington.

Navy dropped from +17.5 to +15.5 within a matter of minutes on Saturday morning despite receiving less than 20% of tickets. They then proceeded to beat Houston outright at home, 46-40.

Despite the majority of tickets on Arkansas the entire week, they never dropped below +14, and even moved to +14.5 by kickoff, indicating bookmakers were not willing to move to Bama -13.5 in fear of lots of sharp money on the Tide. Alabama was able to win and cover 49-30.

North Texas and Wyoming both get upset wins yesterday to go over their Season Win Totals of 2.5 and 3.5 respectively.

Notre Dame (9.5), Marshall (8.5), Oregon (8.5), and Northern Illinois (8.5) have already sealed the Under for their Season Win Totals.

Heisman Watch
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson went into this week still listed at -210 at 5Dimes but the Cardinals did not play.

Clemson QB Deshaun Watson started the week at around +500 and posted 4 TDs and 266 passing yards in a 56-10 win at BC on Friday night.

New Key Injuries

Cal QB Davis Webb: Questionable Friday (10/21) vs. Oregon with a hand injury
Illinois QB West Lunt: Questionable Saturday (10/15) vs. Rutgers with a leg injury
Maryland QB Perry Hills: Questionable Saturday (10/15) vs. Minnesota with a shoulder issue
Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong Jr: Questionable Saturday (10/15) at Indiana with an ankle injury
Stanford WR Christian McCaffrey: Questionable Saturday (10/15) at Notre Dame with a leg issue
UCLA QB Josh Rosen: Questionable Saturday (10/15) at Washington State with a leg injury

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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