2016 College Football: Week 5 Betting Recap
If you’re a college football fan, you’ve gotta be happy with the season so far. This past weekend saw some more crazy finishes and late covers, and we’ve highlighted some of the best below.
Week 5 Trends via BetLabsSports.com
Home: 30-28 ATS
Underdogs: 31-28 ATS
Less than 40% of tickets: 28-16 ATS
Favorites less than 50% tickets: 8-2 ATS (6-0 ATS when <45% of tickets)
Biggest Moneyline Upsets
South Alabama +850 vs. San Diego State
Northwestern +375 at Iowa
North Carolina +320 at Florida State
There were also some big live moneyline comebacks:
West Virginia +575 vs. Kansas State
Clemson +465 vs. Louisville
Baylor +385 at Iowa State
Tennessee +340 at Georgia
Let’s get right to the Vols’ hail mary ending to beat UGA 34-31:
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 2, 2016
And this was how North Carolina came back to beat FSU 37-35 after UNC led early, then FSU took the lead late:
KICKER SWAG DOING THE TOMAHAWK CHOP IN DOAK STADIUM AFTER A 54-YARD BUZZER BEATER OMGhttps://t.co/9P1xG10c5X
— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) October 1, 2016
On Friday night BYU and Toledo both went over the entire game total (51) themselves, with BYU winning 55-53 on a last second field goal.
Washington crushed Stanford 44-6 on Friday. Huskies closed with just 41% of spread tickets but moved from -3 to -3.5 during the week, a great indication of sharp money against a higher ranked team.
Notre Dame led Syracuse 23-13 less than 5 minutes into the game, and the live total reached 109.5 at 5Dimes. Game total closed at 74 and the Irish ended up winning 50-33 as they couldn’t quite keep up the early pace.
Iowa lost again at home, this time to Northwestern 38-31. At Wynn in Las Vegas, Iowa was their biggest liability to win the NCAAF title, moving from 100:1 to 25:1, so they’re particularly happy with this outcome.
Clemson beat Louisville 42-36 in a thriller Saturday night. Pinnacle originally opened Clemson -3.5 before moving to Louisville -2 during the week and closing at a pick ’em. We tracked nearly 83,000 bets on the game, twice as many as any other game on Saturday and it lived up to its potential and hype. Clemson led 28-10 at halftime before Louisville took a 36-28 lead before losing.
When Academy teams play each other the Under is now 26-7 since 2005 after Air Force beat Navy 28-14 to go under the closing total of 47.5. The game opened 51.5 as these matchups continue to take sharp money on the under. Even if you got on the under late, you were still able to cash.
Pitt opened -18, moved to -15.5 for a few days and closed -16.5. They scored 2 late TDs including an INT return w/no time left to beat Marshall 43-27. This was particularly interesting also because the total opened at 70.5 and closed at 57.5, so there were plenty of middles to be had.
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson went into this week as the -160 favorite at 5Dimes, followed by JT Barrett (+850) and Deshaun Watson (+950). Christian McCaffrey was 4th on the list at +1000, but struggled in Stanford’s blowout loss at Washington on Friday night. Lamar Jackson was very good but Louisville lost to Clemson and Dashaun Watson, who threw for 5 TDs. Watson’s odds should definitely be coming down, maybe to +300 or +400.
New key injuries
Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes (shoulder) questionable vs. Kansas State
Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett (ankle) questionable vs. Tennessee
UGA RB Nick Chubb (ankle) questionable at South Carolina
LSU RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) questionable vs. Florida
Arizona QB Brandon Dawkins (ribs) questionable at Utah