Value plays basically broke even in Week 23 and are now +8.73 units on the season. We saw big upsets including Watford +628 over Arsenal, and the Manchester United/Hull Draw at +700. Road teams and draws were successful but home teams remain profitable ton the season overall.
Week 23 Results:
Man City -171 at West Ham
Burnley +200 vs. Leicester
Middlesbrough/West Brom Draw +202
Liverpool/Chelsea Draw +220
Swansea +225 vs. Southampton
Everton/Stoke Draw +237
Crystal Palace +237 at Bournemouth
Sunderland/Tottenham Draw +471
Watford +628 at Arsenal
Man Utd/Hull Draw +700
Home: 108 wins of 230 (+13.35 units)
Away: 67 wins of 230 (-40.95 units)
Draw: 55 wins of 230 (-5.54 units)
Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points:
Chelsea -335 (56)
Tottenham +1100 (47)
Man City +1150 (46)
Arsenal +1800 (47)
Liverpool +1800 (46)
Man Utd +4000 (42)
This weekend’s marquee game is Chelsea hosting Arsenal on early Saturday morning. The betting public is a bit heavy on Arsenal but I’ll be laying off this one entirely.
As for value plays, the first one this week will be the Watford/Burnley Draw at +225 odds. Currently 66% of moneyline tickets is on Watford +112 while just 18% of tickets is on the Draw +225. Despite the huge support for Watford at home, the line has barely moved since opening while there was initial line movement on the draw. The line chart at Pinnacle below shows that early move on the draw:
The other value play will be a moneyline parlay on Crystal Palace -137 and Man City -435, which pays out +113. The reasoning behind both is the same, as public support is far lower than their expected win percentage. Crystal Palace’s implied probability to win is 58% vs. Sunderland, but only 34% of tickets are on Crystal Palace. The public likes Sunderland’s result from last week but Crystal Palace should take care of business at home, and same goes for Man City on Sunday.
Most Lopsided Around Market: 68% on Everton -140, 65% on Watford +112
Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Hull/Liverpool Draw +383 to +359, West Ham +422 to +384, Sunderland +506 to +437
Value Plays (+8.73 units this season): Watford/Burnley Draw +225, Crystal Palace/Man City parlay +112
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