The 2016-17 NBA season doesn’t tip-off until October 25th, but there has been no shortage of fireworks during the free agent period. Kevin Durant helped create one of the most talented teams in league history by joining the Golden State Warriors. Al Horford spurned the Hawks to sign a max contract with the Boston Celtics. Dwyane Wade shocked the world when he opted to sign a two-year deal with the Chicago Bulls.
The NBA salary cap for the 2016-17 NBA season jumped from $70 million to $94 million due to a new television deal worth roughly $24 billion. This infusion of new money led to a spending spree like never before.
Marginal players like Timofey Mozgov and Evan Turner signed massive contracts while Mike Conley (who has never been an All-Star) signed the richest contract in league history. Essentially anybody who signed a contract under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) looks like a steal.
Players getting paid less than Evan Turner next season
— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) July 1, 2016
You would think that this flurry of activity would cause significant movement to the NBA futures market, but there’s been surprisingly little change. The Warriors odds of winning the 2017 NBA Championship jumped from +150 to -150 at the Westgate Superbook and the Thunder dropped from +800 to +3000, but most teams saw their odds dip slightly. Golden State’s improvements were so vast that it changes the dynamic for the entire league.
Despite repeated attempts to bring parity to the league, there are fewer legitimate title contenders than ever before. There are only three teams listed at better than 20/1 to win the 2017 championship at the Westgate — Golden State (-150), Cleveland (+250) and San Antonio (+700).
Earlier this week, the Greek became the first major offshore sportsbook to post Conference Championship odds. To nobody’s surprise, the Cavs (-350) and Warriors (-500) were both massive favorites to represent their respective conferences in the NBA Finals.
The table below compares the latest odds in Las Vegas (Westgate) and offshore (Greek). It will be updated as more information becomes available.
|Team||The Greek (7/14)||Westgate (7/10)|
|New York Knicks||+4000||+4000|
|Team||The Greek (7/14)||Westgate (7/10)|
|Golden State Warriors||-500||-400|
|San Antonio Spurs||+500||+400|
|Los Angeles Clippers||+800||+1200|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||+3500||+2000|
|New Orleans Pelicans||+7500||+5000|
|Los Angeles Lakers||+25000||+20000|
After signing Horford, the Celtics (+800) have emerged as the Cavaliers main competition to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. In the past week, rumors have been swirling about the team’s pursuit of Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook — either of whom would likely cause the Celtics odds to improve substantially.
It’s also interesting to see that the Thunder are 35/1 to win the conference at the Greek considering that they’re still 30/1 to win the championship at the Westgate Superbook. Oklahoma City still has plenty of talent with Westbrook, Oladipo, Kanter and Adams so it will be interesting to see whether they attempt to move Westbrook before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season.
Assuming he's on the opening day roster, Russell Westbrook is -160 to be traded during the upcoming NBA season. #Thunder
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 14, 2016
In terms of value, I really like the Spurs (+500) to win the Western Conference. It’s easy to forget that they won 67 games last season and have added Pau Gasol in free agency. Their frontcourt trio of Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Gasol will be fun to watch and their length could give the Warriors small ball lineup trouble during the playoffs.
The 2016-17 regular season doesn’t start until October, but the NBA Summer League is underway. Bettors can track the latest odds, public betting trends, injuries and even futures by visiting our free NBA odds page.
Which teams do you think are offering value? Are the Warriors or Cavs being overvalued? Will Russell Westbrook be traded this season? Please leave your comments in the section below.
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