Before the 2016 Conference Finals had even concluded, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its odds on next season’s NBA Championship. The Warriors were listed as the early favorite to take home the 2017 Larry O’Brien Trophy, but they dropped from +150 to +250 after being defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals.
Those odds shifted dramatically when Kevin Durant announced that he would be leaving Oklahoma City to sign with the Warriors. With a starting lineup that features four All-NBA performers, Golden State’s odds of winning the title jumped from +250 to -150 while the Thunder dropped from +800 to +3000.
-150 to win 2017 title
-350 to win Western Conference
+300 to win at least 74 games
Over/Under 68.5 Wins
— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) July 5, 2016
The table below examines the early line movement for the 2017 NBA championship futures at the Westgate Superbook.
|Team||Westgate (7/5)||Westgate (6/28)||Westgate (5/30)|
|Golden State WARRIORS||-150||+250||+150|
|San Antonio SPURS||+800||+600||+600|
|Los Angeles CLIPPERS||+2000||+900||+1600|
|Oklahoma City THUNDER||+3000||+700||+800|
|New Orleans PELICANS||+6000||+6000||+6000|
|Portland TRAIL BLAZERS||+8000||+7500||+6000|
|New York KNICKS||+10000||+5500||+10000|
|Los Angeles LAKERS||+30000||+10000||+10000|
Kevin Durant isn’t the only major free agent signing, with several prominent players signing massive deals with a new team. Al Horford signed a four-year, $113 million contract with the Boston Celtics, Dwight Howard signed a three-year, $70 million contract with the Atlanta Hawks and Chandler Parsons signed a four-year, $94 million contract with the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavericks are also expected to sign Harrison Barnes to a four-year $94 million contract.
Despite these major signings, the future market remains has not improved for these teams. The Celtics were expected to be a major player in free agency, and their odds of winning the title actually dipped from 17/1 to 20/1. The Hawks may have added Dwight Howard, but their odds of winning the championship plummeted from 25/1 to 80/1.
Oddsmakers seem to believe it’s a foregone conclusion that the Warriors and Cavs will meet in the NBA Finals for a third straight season and, as a result, the odds for most other teams have dropped substantially. However, readers may be interested to know that the Cavs (-400) actually have better odds of reaching the Finals than the Thunder (-350). This speaks to the talent imbalance between conferences.
The tables below display the odds for all 30 NBA teams to win their conference and reach the NBA Finals.
Odds to win Eastern Conference
|Team||Westgate (7/4)||Westgate (5/29)|
|New York KNICKS||+4000||+3500|
Odds to win Western Conference
|Team||Westgate (7/4)||Westgate (5/29)|
|Golden State WARRIORS||-350||-110|
|San Antonio SPURS||+400||+300|
|Los Angeles CLIPPERS||+1200||+800|
|Oklahoma City THUNDER||+1800||+400|
|New Orleans PELICANS||+3500||+3000|
|Portland TRAIL BLAZERS||+3500||+3000|
|Los Angeles LAKERS||+20000||+5000|
There have already been rumors circulating that the Oklahoma City Thunder may entertain trade offers for Russell Westbrook, and that would have significant ramifications on the futures market. It’s also worth noting that several free agents remain unsigned including Dwyane Wade, Festus Ezeli and Allen Crabbe.
The Warriors are coming off an NBA-record 73 wins during the regular season and have added one of the best players in the league. They’re currently -150 to win the championship, with the field listed at +130. When you combine this monumental power shift with the high level of talent in next year’s draft, it seems highly probable that there will be at least one blockbuster trade before the start of the season.
The 2016-17 regular season doesn’t start until October, but the NBA Summer League is underway. Bettors can track the latest odds, public betting trends, injuries and even futures by visiting our free NBA odds page.
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