2016-17 NBA Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Blocks?

Earlier in the offseason, we posted an article which examined the odds for who would lead the NBA in points, rebounds, and assists per game. These prop bets covered the major statistical categories but, on Monday morning, the oddsmakers at Paddy Power posted odds for the league leader in blocks per game. As per NBA rules, any player must participate in at least 58 games to qualify as the league leader.

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Hassan Whiteside, who averaged a league-high 3.68 blocks per game last season, opened as the -185 favorite to repeat as the league’s leading shot-blocker. Those impressive statistics dwarfed DeAndre Jordan (2.30 BPG), Rudy Gobert (2.21 BPG) and Anthony Davis (2.05 BPG), who finished second, third and fourth, respectively. Interestingly, all three of those players are listed at +600 to lead the league during the 2016-17 season.

The table below displays the odds for league leader at Paddy Power.

Player Odds
Hassan Whiteside -185
Anthony Davis +600
Rudy Gobert +600
DeAndre Jordan +600
Karl Anthony-Towns +1100
Serge Ibaka +1100
Joel Embiid +1300
Dwight Howard +2200
Kristaps Porzingis +3300
Myles Turner +3300
Giannis Antetokounmpo +5000
John Henson +5000
Andrew Bogut +5000
Bismack Biyombo +6000
Al Horford +6000
DeMarcus Cousins +6000
Pau Gasol +6000
Robin Lopez +6000
Jerami Grant +6000
Brook Lopez +6000
Derrick Favors +6000
Andre Drummond +6000
Draymond Green +15000
Roy Hibbert +15000
Paul Millsap +15000
Nerlens Noel +27500

There are several problems with these types of prop bets including small limits, high juice and the long delays for potential payouts. It’s also worth noting that the theoretical hold percentage for this prop bet is 39.3%, which is higher than more common futures like NBA Champion or Division winner.

In order to extract any value for this type of prop bet, it’s worth focusing on players with long enough odds to warrant the prolonged waiting period. With that in mind, the one player piquing my interest is Andre Drummond. The 23-year old big man boasts a unique combination of size and athleticism that have made him an absolute terror on the boards. He’s guaranteed to log garner significant playing time on a Pistons team that lacks depth at center, so he looks like a potential value at 60/1.

Who do you think will lead the league in blocks? Are oddsmakers overvaluing Whiteside? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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