2016-17 NBA Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Blocks?
Earlier in the offseason, we posted an article which examined the odds for who would lead the NBA in points, rebounds, and assists per game. These prop bets covered the major statistical categories but, on Monday morning, the oddsmakers at Paddy Power posted odds for the league leader in blocks per game. As per NBA rules, any player must participate in at least 58 games to qualify as the league leader.
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Hassan Whiteside, who averaged a league-high 3.68 blocks per game last season, opened as the -185 favorite to repeat as the league’s leading shot-blocker. Those impressive statistics dwarfed DeAndre Jordan (2.30 BPG), Rudy Gobert (2.21 BPG) and Anthony Davis (2.05 BPG), who finished second, third and fourth, respectively. Interestingly, all three of those players are listed at +600 to lead the league during the 2016-17 season.
The table below displays the odds for league leader at Paddy Power.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Hassan Whiteside | -185 |
| Anthony Davis | +600 |
| Rudy Gobert | +600 |
| DeAndre Jordan | +600 |
| Karl Anthony-Towns | +1100 |
| Serge Ibaka | +1100 |
| Joel Embiid | +1300 |
| Dwight Howard | +2200 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +3300 |
| Myles Turner | +3300 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +5000 |
| John Henson | +5000 |
| Andrew Bogut | +5000 |
| Bismack Biyombo | +6000 |
| Al Horford | +6000 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | +6000 |
| Pau Gasol | +6000 |
| Robin Lopez | +6000 |
| Jerami Grant | +6000 |
| Brook Lopez | +6000 |
| Derrick Favors | +6000 |
| Andre Drummond | +6000 |
| Draymond Green | +15000 |
| Roy Hibbert | +15000 |
| Paul Millsap | +15000 |
| Nerlens Noel | +27500 |
There are several problems with these types of prop bets including small limits, high juice and the long delays for potential payouts. It’s also worth noting that the theoretical hold percentage for this prop bet is 39.3%, which is higher than more common futures like NBA Champion or Division winner.
In order to extract any value for this type of prop bet, it’s worth focusing on players with long enough odds to warrant the prolonged waiting period. With that in mind, the one player piquing my interest is Andre Drummond. The 23-year old big man boasts a unique combination of size and athleticism that have made him an absolute terror on the boards. He’s guaranteed to log garner significant playing time on a Pistons team that lacks depth at center, so he looks like a potential value at 60/1.
Who do you think will lead the league in blocks? Are oddsmakers overvaluing Whiteside? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the comment section below.
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