2015 Women’s World Cup Final – USA vs. Japan

The 2015 Women’s World Cup Final takes place on Sunday night at 7 pm ET in Vancouver, British Columbia and will feature a rematch of the 2011 Final between the USA and Japan. In 2011, USA had a 1-0 lead in the 81st minute when Japan tied it 1-1 to force extra time. USA went up 2-1 in extra time but again gave up the tying goal with just 3 minutes left, ultimately losing in the shootout. With a stronger and stingier squad, USA fans will be hoping for a different outcome this time around.

Quickly after Japan booked its spot in the final, 5Dimes released odds for the title game. For non-soccer fans or bettors, there are a few different ways to wager on the game. 3-way odds and spreads are based on 90 minutes of regulation time only, while there’s also the option to simply bet on who will lift the trophy (odds via 5Dimes, betting splits via CRIS):

Opening 3-way odds: USA -114  |  Japan +283  |  Draw +228

Current 3-way odds:  USA -132  |  Japan +496  |  Draw +254

Betting Splits:          USA 70%  |  Japan 24%  |  Draw 6%

 

Opening Spread:     USA -0.5 (-112)  |  Japan +0.5 (-101)

Current Spread:      USA -0.5 (-133)  |  Japan +0.5 (+118)

Betting Splits:        USA 77%  |  Japan 23%

 

Bettors holding a USA future may be thinking about hedging with Japan, and that option has brought better odds since opening:

Opening Odds To Lift the Trophy: USA -240  |  Japan +205

Current Odds To Lift the Trophy:  USA -280  |  Japan +240

We stress the importance of shopping for the best line for every sport and every prop, and it’s no different for the Women’s World Cup:

Prior to the tournament, USA had the best odds to win the World Cup, just ahead of Germany. Japan was also expected to contend, behind only USA, Germany and France. Below shows how odds fluctuated from before the tournament to now:

Country July 5 June 25 June 18 June 14 June 11 June 5 May 21 Apr 27
USA -280 +250 +258 +280 +320 +300 +300 +300
Japan +240 +750 +1315 +1300 +1250 +850 +800 +800

Early bettors are jumping on USA to win in regulation and rightfully so– they’ve yet to concede a goal since the opening game of the tournament– but the value here may lie in the draw, just like the 2011 Final. This is the first USA game of the tournament that bettors are big on the USA moneyline, likely due to more square bettors following the tournament the later it goes. There’s also a somewhat high percentage of bets (currently 22%) on the Japan moneyline of +496, something we’ve routinely seen in this tournament. For example, when USA played Colombia in the knockout round, a whopping 40% of bettors took Colombia at +1900. Typically when this happens, there’s actually value created on the other side or on the draw.

USA fans will also be happy to know that only about 72% of bets are on USA to lift the trophy at -280 odds, while the other 28% are on Japan at +240. At these odds, the betting percentages actually aren’t too lopsided, and may also be hinting towards a USA World Cup win in extra time or a shootout.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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