2015 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

The NFL Draft concluded on Saturday, May 2nd and on Tuesday (5/26) morning Bovada became the first major offshore sportsbook to post odds for the 2015 NFL Rookie of the Year. Although Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two selections, neither quarterback opened as the favorite — that honor belongs to Chargers 1st round selection Melvin Gordon.

Last season at Wisconsin, the 6’1 back nearly broke the single-season rushing record with 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns. That includes a record-breaking 408 rushing yards against Nebraska — a mark which lasted for only one week. With Ryan Mathews gone, Gordon should receive the lion’s share of the workload for San Diego which helps explain why the 15th overall pick would have the shortest odds.

The table below compares the early NFL Rookie of the Year odds at Bovada and BetOnline with the most recent update from 5Dimes. This data will be updated as the season approaches and, as always, we encourage bettors to shop for the best line.

Player Team Bovada (10/8) 5Dimes (8/14) Bovada (5/26) BetOnline (5/16) Bovada (5/6) Bovada (5/5)
Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans +250 +1000 +1000 +1000 +900 +700
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders +300 +650 +750 +700 +750 +750
Todd Gurley St. Louis Rams +300 +900 +1200 +850 +800 +800
Melvin Gordon San Diego Chargers +750 +700 +750 +600 +650 +650
TJ Yeldon Jacksonville Jaguars +1200 +2000 +1000 +1200 +1200 +1200
Tyler Lockett Seattle Seahawks +1200 +2500 +2000 +2500 +1800 +2500
Karlos Williams Buffalo Bills +1200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1400 +550 +400 +600 +700 +700
Duke Johnson Cleveland Browns +1500 +4000 +2800 +3300 +2500 +2500
Ameer Abdullah Detroit Lions +2000 +2500 +2500 +2000 +2500 +2500
David Johnson Arizona Cardinals +2000 +3300 +3300 N/A +2500 N/A
Matt Jones Washington Redskins +2000 +5000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kevin White Chicago Bears N/A +1200 +1200 +800 +1000 +1000
Nelson Agholor Philadelphia Eagles N/A +1400 +1000 +1200 +1400 +1400
Breshad Perriman Baltimore Ravens N/A +2500 +1000 +1800 +2500 +2200
Tevin Coleman Atlanta Falcons N/A +2500 +2500 +1800 N/A N/A
DeVante Parker Miami Dolphins N/A +2500 +2500 +1500 +1600 +1600
Phillip Dorsett Indianapolis Colts N/A +2500 +3300 +1600 +1600 +1400
Devin Smith New York Jets N/A +2500 +3300 +2200 +2200 +2200
Dorial Green-Beckham Tennessee Titans N/A +2800 +2500 +1800 +2500 +1800
Maxx Williams Baltimore Ravens N/A +3300 +2800 N/A +1600 +1400
Jaelen Strong Houston Texans N/A +3300 +3300 +2200 +2500 +2500
Chris Conley Kansas City Chiefs N/A +3300 +2500 +3300 +2500 +2500
Devin Funchess Carolina Panthers N/A +4000 +3300 +2000 +2500 +2200
Tyler Kroft Cincinnati Bengals N/A +5000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sammie Coates Pittsburgh Steelers N/A +5000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bryce Petty New York Jets N/A +6500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Andrus Peat New Orleans Saints N/A +6500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Clive Walford Oakland Raiders N/A +6600 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Garrett Grayson New Orleans Saints N/A +6600 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jay Ajayi Miami Dolphins N/A +6600 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ereck Flowers New York Giants N/A +7000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Lael Collins Dallas Cowboys N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ty Montgomery Green Bay Packers N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Langford Chicago Bears N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Brandon Scherff Washington Redskins N/A +12500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cameron Artis-Payne Carolina Panthers N/A +12500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Justin Hardy Atlanta Falcons N/A +12500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sean Mannion St. Louis Rams N/A +12500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TJ Clemmings Minnesota Vikings N/A +12500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
DJ Humphries Arizona Cardinals N/A +15000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jamison Crowder Washington Redskins N/A +15000 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Although Melvin Gordon opened as the favorite, Jameis Winston saw his odds skyrocket, moving from +700 to +400 within three weeks of this prop being released. In that same time Marcus Mariota dropped from +700 to +1000 and Todd Gurley dropped from +800 to +1200.

One of the largest risers is Ravens first round draft pick Breshad Perriman. The 6’2″ receiver didn’t post exceptional stats last season at Central Florida (50 receptions for 1,044 yards and 9 touchdowns), but his elite speed and big-play ability make him an interesting option for Joe Flacco — especially as the team attempts to replace Torrey Smith.

Some of the largest discrepancies between Bovada and BetOnline include: Kevin White (+1200 vs. +800), Breshad Perriman (+1000 vs. +1800), Dorial Green-Beckham (+2500 vs. +1800), Chris Conley (+2500 vs. +3300) and Phillip Dorsett (+3300 vs. +1600). It’s also interesting to see that bettors aren’t buying the hype on Marcus Mariota as his Rookie of the Year odds continue to slip.

It was also interesting to see that 5Dimes player pool was significantly larger than those at Bovada or BetOnline and included a number of late round selections and offensive linemen. This is particularly interesting since five of the last six Rookie of the Year winners have been first round picks, and no offensive lineman has ever won the award.

The table below displays the preseason Offensive Rookie of the Year odds for the past six seasons. (via SportsOddsHistory)

Year Player (Pos) Team Round (Pick) Odds
2009 Pervy Harvin (WR) Minnesota Vikings 1 (22) +1200
2010 Sam Bradford (QB) St. Louis Rams 1 (1) +500
2011 Cam Newton (QB) Carolina Panthers 1 (1) +400
2012 Robert Griffin III (QB) Washington Redskins 1 (2) +400
2013 Eddie Lacy (RB) Green Bay Packers 2 (61) +800
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) New York Giants 1 (12) +2500

Along with these Rookie of the Year odds, Bovada also posted a number of prop bets for this incoming class. Note that all quarterbacks must start Week 1, running backs must receive at least 1 carry in Week 1, and wide receivers must play in Week 1 for action.

– Jameis Winston (1st overall pick by Tampa Bay)

O/U 3,750 passing yards, 19.5 TD passes, 17.5 interceptions

– Marcus Mariota (2nd overall pick by Tennessee)

O/U 3,400 passing yards, 425.5 rushing yards, 18.5 TD passes

– Amari Cooper (4th overall pick by Oakland)

O/U 900.5 receiving yards, 5.5 TD receptions.

– Kevin White (7th overall by Chicago)

O/U 800.5 receiving yards, 6 TD receptions

– Todd Gurley (10th overall pick by St. Louis)

O/U 750.5 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD

– DeVante Parker (14th overall pick by Miami)

O/U 750.5 receiving yards, 5 TD receptions

– Melvin Gordon (15th overall pick by St. Louis)

O/U 900.5 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD

– Nelson Agholor (20th overall pick by Philadelphia)

O/U 700.5 receiving yards, 4.5 TD receptions

– Vic Beasley (8th overall pick by Atlanta)

O/U 8 sacks | +1,000 to win Defensive ROY

Bettors should know that Derek Carr led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,163 passing yards, Jeremy Hill led all rookie running backs with 1,144 rushing yards, Odell Beckham led all rookie receivers with 1,305 receiving yards and Aaron Donald led all rookies with 9 sacks.

Although Andrew Luck did amass over 4,300 passing yards during his rookie season, he was viewed as a once-in-a-generation player. When you consider that Russell Wilson (3,475), Andy Dalton (3,398), Colin Kaepernick (3,369) and Cam Newton (3,127) all passed for under 3,500 yards last season, it would seem that Bovada is expecting an influx on public money on the over for both Winston and Mariota.

Based on recent history, it would seem as though the under for both Winston (3,700 yards) and Mariota (3,400 yards) seem to be offering value.

10/8/15 Update

After four weeks of action, Bovada became the first prominent offshore sportsbook to update their Rookie of the Year odds. Marcus Mariota, who has passed for 833 yards with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in three games, moved from +1000 to +250 at Bovada based on the strength of his early season performance.

Jameis Winston, who was selected with the first overall pick, has struggled in the early going and has slipped from +550 to +1400. Although he was the preseason favorite, Winston now has just the eighth best odds.

Easily the biggest riser was Buffalo Bills running back Karlos Williams. A fifth round pick out of Florida State, no sportsbook posted Rookie of the Year odds on Williams prior to the start of the season. However, the 6’1″ 230-pounder has racked up 226 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards and 4 total touchdowns. He’s still expected to back-up LeSean McCoy, but McCoy has struggled with injuries this season.

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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