2015 NBA Playoff Race: An Oddsmakers Take

2015 NBA Playoff Race: An Oddsmakers Take

The 2015 NBA Playoffs begin on April 18th and teams are still jockeying for position. The top seeds have already been locked up with the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors holding substantial leads over the competition, but the battle for the 8-seed in each conference likely won’t be decided until the final day of the season.

In the Western Conference, the New Orleans Pelicans (42-35) hold a half-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder (42-36) for the final playoff spot. However, the Eastern Conference has turned into a four team race with the Boston Celtics (35-43) somehow holding the upper hand over the Miami Heat (35-43), Indiana Pacers (34-43) and Charlotte Hornets (33-44). The Brooklyn Nets (36-41) also hold a tentative lead on the 7-seed in the East with a one-game lead over Boston.

Most of these teams have either five or six games to play, and we wanted to know what the lines would be in each of these critical matchups. With the help of Bet Labs manager Travis Reed we predicted the point spreads and implied odds for every remaining game. Using those figures, we were able to determine which teams were likely to make the postseason, and which were destined for the lottery.

Note: The win projection is calculated by removing the juice from the moneyline and then converting to an implied win percentage.

Eastern Conference:

Brooklyn Nets (Currently 7th)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 8th	vs. Atlanta Hawks	-6	-245	69.23%
April 10th	vs. Washington Wizards	+3	+140	41.49%
April 12th	at Milwaukee Bucks	+2	+115	46.15%
April 13th	vs. Chicago Bulls	+4.5	+185	36.55%
April 15th	vs. Orlando Magic	-10	-505	83.27%

Projected Wins: 2.7669 | Total Wins: 38.7669

Boston Celtics (Currently 8th)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 8th	at Detroit Pistons	-1	-115	51.08%
April 10th	at Cleveland Cavaliers*	+11	+455	14.15%
April 12th	vs. Cleveland Cavaliers*	+7	+260	27.03%
April 14th	vs. Toronto Raptors	-2.5	-135	55.83%
April 15th	at Milwaukee Bucks	+3	+140	41.49%

Projected Wins: 1.8958 | Total Wins: 36.8958

Miami Heat (0.5 Games Back)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 9th	vs. Chicago Bulls*	+1	+100	48.92%
April 11th	vs. Toronto Raptors	-4.5	-215	63.45%
April 13th	vs. Orlando Magic	-9.5	-470	82.00%
April 15th	at Philadelphia 76ers	-8	-335	76.62%

Projected Wins: 2.7099 | Total Wins: 37.7099

Indiana Pacers (1.0 Games Back)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 8th	at New York Knicks	-12.5	-730	90.09%
April 10th	at Detroit Pistons	PK	-110	50.00%
April 12th	vs. Oklahoma City Thunder	+1	+100	48.92%
April 14th	vs. Washington Wizards	-3	-160	58.51%
April 15th	at Memphis Grizzlies*	+6	+210	30.77%

Projected Wins: 2.7829 | Total Wins: 36.7829

Charlotte Hornets (2.0 Games Back)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 8th	vs. Toronto Raptors	+3.5	+165	39.88%
April 10th	at Atlanta Hawks*	+10.5	+410	15.48%
April 12th	at Detroit Pistons	+6	+210	30.77%
April 13th	vs. Houston Rockets	+8.5	+325	21.58%
April 15th	at Toronto Raptors	+6	+210	30.77%

Projected Wins: 1.3848 | Total Wins: 34.3848

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Western Conference

New Orleans Pelicans (Currently 8th)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 8th	at Memphis Grizzlies	+4.5	+185	36.55%
April 10th	vs. Phoenix Suns	-5.5	-240	67.65%
April 12th	at Houston Rockets	+6.5	+230	28.93%
April 13th	at Minnesota T'Wolves	-5	-230	65.48%
April 15th	vs. San Antonio Spurs*	+3	+140	41.49%

Projected Wins: 2.401 | Total Wins: 44.401

Oklahoma City (0.5 Games Back)

Date	Opponent	Projected Spread	Projected ML	Implied Odds
April 10th	vs. Sacramento Kings	-9.5	-470	82.00%
April 12th	at Indiana Pacers	-3	-160	58.51%
April 13th	vs. Portland Blazers	-2	-130	53.85%
April 15th	at Minnesota T'Wolves	-12	-680	88.22%

Projected Wins: 2.8258 | Total Wins: 44.8258

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Based on our analysis, the Thunder are projected to pass the Pelicans for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. In the Eastern Conference, our numbers indicate that the Nets will hold onto the 7-seed while the Heat will leapfrog the Celtics for the 8-seed.

All of our lines are based on the premise that each team will dress a full roster, but it will be interesting to monitor whether playoff teams rest their stars down the stretch. We have put an asterisk next to potential rest teams, so those lines are certainly subject to dramatic changes.

The Celtics have two games against the Cavs, and that spread could change dramatically if LeBron James, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love sit out. When you consider that Cleveland has all but locked up the 2-seed in the East, this seems like a highly plausible scenario. Similarly, the Miami Heat will play the Chicago Bulls tomorrow and it remains unclear whether the recently activated Derrick Rose will be playing on the second night of back-to-back games.

The most obvious potential rest game is the Pelican/Spurs game on the last day of the season. San Antonio has a history of resting their stars, so don’t be surprised if coach Popovich gives Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili the night off.

There is only one game featuring two playoff hopefuls: the April 12th showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. Bettors should be sure to bookmark our free NBA odds page for the latest odds and public betting trends.

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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.