2015 College Football: Week 5 Opening Line Report

Alabama at Georgia: Early betting has been relatively split but Georgia has moved from a pick ’em to -2.5 at BetOnline since opening. Although Alabama has already lost a conference game this year, a win over Georgia would get them right back in the mix for the SEC and NCAA titles. If Bama does close as an underdog this week, it would break a string of 72 consecutive games of being favored. The last time Bama closed as a dog was +4.5 in the 2009 SEC title game but they rolled over Florida in that one 32-13.

Ole Miss at Florida: Ole Miss is now ranked #3 after taking care of business against Vandy last week and sportsbooks really differed on this opening line. BetOnline opened Ole Miss -6.5 but CRIS opened them -5.5 while 5Dimes opened them -7. Right now most books are listing Ole Miss at -6.5 or -7, which is always crucial on the key number.

Miami FL at Cincinnati: Cincy QB Gunner Kiel is once again doubtful for this week with a head injury, and he has taken a pounding this season. Without Kiel, Cincy opened +4.5 at home and have already moved to +6. Bettors should be on the lookout though, as Kiel was doubtful for last week’s game before being upgraded to probable on game day. Over the summer Cincy was listed -2.5 on the lookahead line, which means performance and injuries have moved this line a full touchdown. Bettors are low on the Bearcats after giving up 53 points to Memphis last Thursday, and only 26% of early bets are taking the home underdog.

Notre Dame at Clemson: Even fans who despise Notre Dame have to feel for the Irish considering the plethora of season-ending injuries they’ve experienced. Despite losing so many key players, ND opened at just +2 at Clemson on Saturday night. It’s interesting to note that the lookahead line over the summer was Clemson -3.5, so oddsmakers still have a lot of faith in the Irish. Nearly 2/3 of early bets are on small home favorites Clemson but if the line reaches -3 there may be some value on Notre Dame.

 

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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