2015 College Football: Week 4 Betting Recap

2015 College Football: Week 4 Betting Recap

Four weeks of the 2015 College Football season are in the books, and we’ll recap the past week below.

-Saturday’s biggest moneyline upsets:
James Madison +450 at SMU
East Carolina +329 vs. Virginia Tech
Utah +282 at Oregon
Akron +250 at UL Lafayette
Duke +250 vs. Georgia Tech

-Alabama had closed as favorites in 72 consecutive games including last week’s -38 spread and past postseason games, but that may end in Week 5, as they open +2 at Georgia and are currently +2.5.

-Following their relatively easy cover at Northwestern (closed +18, lost by 5), Ball State moved to 35-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2005.

-Highest O/U of the week was TCU at Texas Tech (84.5). It easily went over, finishing 55-52 TCU. This year Overs are now 17-4 when the total closes 70+ points.

-The steam on Michigan was well deserved, as they moved from -4.5 to -7 despite the public pounding BYU. This was one of the most bet games of the day and the Wolverines dismantled BYU at home 31-0 in the third consecutive week playing a west coast team. Steam on favorites <40% of bets has produced a very healthy 61-37 ATS since 2005.

-Army covered on the road for the 2nd straight time after going 15 straight without a cover.

-Baylor put up 70 points in another home drubbing. They’re now 23-5 ATS at home over the last 5 seasons.

-Road teams fared very well this week, covering the spread in 36 of 57 games.

-Unders went 33-23 this past week, including a 23-12 mark when the home team was favored.

Bad Beats/Crazy Endings:

Tennessee at Florida (FLA closed +1): Tennessee stupidly did not go for 2 when up 12 in the 4th quarter, then allowed the Gators to score twice to take a 1-point lead. On the Vols’ final drive, they wasted clock and then missed a game-winning field goal at the end. Live bettors were able to grab the Gators +775 in the 4th quarter. Tennessee has now lost 11 straight games to their hated rival Florida.

Oklahoma State at Texas (TEX closed +3): A muffed punt by Texas with the game tied late in the 4th left Oklahoma State with field position to kick to game-winning field goal to win by 3.

Heisman Watch:
LSU RB Leonard Fournette: Fournette now has 631 rushing yards through the first three games, the most by an FBS rusher over the last 15 years (via ESPN Stats and Info)

UGA RB Nick Chubb: Chubb is trying to keep pace with Fournette for the undefeated Bulldogs, and this week’s matchup against Alabama could help his stock rise.

Miss St QB Dak Prescott: Prescott was listed at +5000 to win the Heisman last week and was the only player in the top 25 of Heisman odds to enter the week as an underdog (+2.5 at Auburn). Miss St rolled at Auburn behind Prescott’s 270 passing yards and 2 TDs and will surely be better than 50:1 going into next week.

USC QB Cody Kessler: Kessler only completed 19 of 33 passes but that was good for 375 yards and 5 TDs in their blowout win at Arizona State.

Major Injuries:
UCLA LB Myles Jack is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in Week 3.

BYU RB Adam Hine is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

Vines/Videos of the Week:
Last week it was a Michigan State WR who made the catch of the week. This week it was probably Michigan WR Amara Darboh with a one-handed grab vs. BYU:


And here’s the dropped snap on the punt by Texas to basically hand Oklahoma State the victory:



The end of the TCU-Texas Tech game featured a couple incredible sequences, courtesy of Deadspin.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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