2015 College Football: Week 12 Betting Recap
We’re nearing the end of the season and the playoff picture is even cloudier with the losses from Ohio State and Oklahoma State. As if there’s not enough controversy already regarding the playoff, a committee having to select 1-loss teams over another is largely judgmental and often biased. With that said, let’s take a look at some betting nuggets from Week 12.
Stats and Trends (via BetLabsSports.com)
-Largest Week 12 moneyline upsets:
Citadel +925 at South Carolina (Citadel closed +22 on the spread)
New Mexico State +502 at UL Lafayette
Michigan St +497 at Ohio St
Northwestern +378 at Wisconsin
Air Force +329 at Boise State
UConn +286 at Houston
-Florida Atlantic almost pulled off a massive upset over Florida, but lost in overtime 20-14. FAU was as high as +31 on the spread and +5500 on the moneyline, and could have eliminated the Gators from having a chance to get into the CFB Playoff.
-In Tuesday MACtion, the top two ATS teams at the time squared off with Toledo (now 7-1-1 ATS) covering and beating Bowling Green (now 8-2 ATS) outright. This puts both teams on a collision course to meet again in the MAC Title Game.
-There was reverse line movement on five of the most bet games this weekend and four of them covered even on the closing line: Baylor -3, BC +15, Ole Miss -6.5, and Virginia Tech +3.5. The only team that did not cover was Ohio State -14, and they lost outright.
-Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-35 on the road to send the game over the closing total of 77. When there’s a 70+ point total between Big 12 schools, the Over is now 46-28 since 2005.
-Friday night Cincinnati was down 51-3 at halftime to South Florida. Cincy closed as a pick ’em on the 1st half line which made it the largest 1st half spread margin in the last 10+ years (48 points).
-Following their loss to Kansas State, Iowa State informed head coach Paul Rhoads that he would not return next season but he will coach the team’s final game. He went 40-39 ATS in nearly 7 seasons with the school.
-Syracuse has also fired its head coach Scott Shafer but he too will coach the team’s final game, at home against Boston College. Shafer has gone 18-16 ATS in nearly 3 season with the school including a 7-4 mark this year.
-Road teams went 33-27 ATS this week while favorites went 35-26 ATS.
-Overs went 32-28 in Week 12.
-Following the conclusion of the regular season we will be posting a College Football Season Betting Recap to include stats and trends from the entire year, Future changes, worst beats, best comebacks and more.
Futures Watch:
-Heading into the matchup with Michigan State, Ohio State was listed at +320 to win the NCAA Title while going undefeated. The ‘No’ on this prop was listed at -400, which has now cashed after the Buckeyes lost at home 17-14.
-Kansas closed +30 this week against West Virginia, the 10th consecutive week they were double-digit underdogs. They were thumped 49-0 at home and have now sealed the Under for their Season Win Total of 1.5.
-Iowa entered the week at 25:1 to win the NCAA title and handled their business against Purdue. UNC was 30:1 heading into the week and escaped with a win at Virginia Tech. These teams were 1200:1 and 500:1 respectively to win the title prior to the season.
Heisman Watch: Here’s a look at the Heisman Trophy odds from 5Dimes heading into Week 12:
Heisman Trophy odds from the summer to now (via 5Dimes): pic.twitter.com/NGxDfvf59R
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 21, 2015
-Bama’s Derrick Henry will stay as the favorite but Clemson QB Dashaun Watson and now Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield are very serious threats.
Videos/Vines:
-Here’s some of the best highlights and moments from Week 12 via NCAA.com.
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