2015 College Football: Conference Championships

This upcoming weekend we have a slate of 8 Conference Championship games and below we’ve taken a look at spreads from Pinnacle along with their preseason conference title odds at 5Dimes:

Conference Current Odds Opening Odds Preseason Odds
AAC Houston -6.5 Houston -7 Temple +550
Houston +600
ACC Clemson -5 Clemson -6.5 Clemson +300
North Carolina +3300
Big Ten Michigan St -3.5 Michigan St -3 Michigan St +950
Iowa +6600
CUSA WKU -7.5 WKU -8.5 Western Kentucky +325
Southern Miss +5000
MAC Bowling Green -10 Bowling Green -9.5 Northern Illinois +325
Bowling Green +475
MWC SDSU -7 SDSU -6.5 San Diego St +450
Air Force +1800
Pac-12 Stanford -4.5 Stanford -4 USC +240
Stanford +625
SEC Alabama -17 Alabama -12 Alabama +325
Florida +3100

On Sunday morning, Pinnacle opened Alabama -12 in the SEC Title game against Florida but moved to -17 within ten minutes. 5Dimes then had to open Alabama -17.5 shortly after but they moved to -17 where the line has settled around most of the market. Early bettors were clearly waiting to pounce on this line and right now more than 60% of spread bets are taking the Crimson Tide.

On Monday morning Pinnacle then opened the total for this game at just 40.5, a very low total for a spread of -17. Our historical trends have shown value on the underdog with such a low spread, but bettors on either Florida or the Over will have to find some confidence in the Gators scoring to have a chance of cashing.

Another interesting line move has been on North Carolina against Clemson in the ACC title game. UNC opened +6.5 at Pinnacle but quickly moved to +5.5, and are currently at +5 despite the majority of bets on Clemson. Clemson was the preseason ACC favorite while UNC was listed at 33:1, so clearly the Tar Heels have exceeded expectations throughout the year. However, with the low spread and early movement on UNC, bettors are clearly sold that they’ll keep the game close.

Over in the Big Ten, we surprisingly have a title game without Ohio St, who were big -240 favorites before the year. This has led longshots Iowa (+6600 before the year) to meet Michigan St, and the spread opened lower than we thought. Obviously Iowa keeps on winning but Michigan State looked impressive last week even with a banged-up Connor Cook. The Spartans are getting 3 out of every 4 early bets in this one and have moved from -3 to -3.5 at Pinnacle.

In Conference USA, we have another big underdog in Southern Miss (+5000 before the year) facing one of the conference favorites in Western Kentucky (+325). WKU rightfully opened at -8.5 but are down to -7.5 despite roughly split betting. The total is currently listed at 71.5 points so oddsmakers are expecting Southern Miss to put up some points, too.

As always we invite you to track all the latest odds, betting trends, injuries and market factors from our Free Live Odds page.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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