2015 Champions League Final- Barcelona vs. Juventus

The 2014-15 Champions League Final will be played on June 6th at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany. Last year Real Madrid scored a late equaliser to send the final into overtime and ultimately won 4-1 in extra time over fellow Spanish side Atletico Madrid. This year we’ve been denied another all-Spanish final as Italian side Juventus knocked off Real Madrid in the semifinals and will face Barcelona in the finals. Below shows a few different ways that this game can be bet along with how odds have changed throughout the year and a quick preview of what to expect (odds via 5Dimes).

Champions League Title opening 3-way lines:

Barcelona -155
Juventus +450
Draw +300
Total 2.5 (o-117)

Some may be wondering how there could be a ‘draw’ line for a title game, but this is based on 90 minutes only. If the game is tied after 90 minutes, the draw is the winner, but the teams will then go to extra time and a shootout if necessary. You can also bet the game simply on the spread, or goal line, which is also graded on 90 minutes of play:

Barcelona -0.5 (-152)
Juventus +0.5 (+132)

Finally, for those who simply want to be straight up on who will win the Champions League title, those odds favor Barcelona much more:

Barcelona -300
Juventus +250

While many may have wanted to see another El Clasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid, a final between Juventus and Barcelona will prove to be a clash of differing styles. Juventus are a defensive-minded side who have a great balance of youth and veterans. Barcelona are a star-studded, offensive juggernaut who no team can really stop completely. In my opinion this matchup will be more interesting than what Barca-Real would have been because the teams don’t meet as often and there won’t be as much flopping/drama. We pegged Barcelona to win the title before the quarterfinals and although it will be a struggle, they should come out on top.

Barcelona was one of the favorites before the year to compete for the Champions League title while Juventus were more of a longshot at +2000, and were even as high as +4650 back in December. Below shows how both Barcelona’s and Juventus’ odds have changed since since last summer:

Club (Country) May 14 May 4 Apr 23 Mar 23 Feb 6 Dec 15 Dec 12 Oct 31 Aug 28 Jun 28
Barcelona (SPA) -280 +170 +170 +250 +500 +550 +480 +550 +550 +700
Juventus (ITA) +240 +895 +870 +700 +2500 +2500 +4650 +3300 +2300 +2000
Chelsea (ENG) N/A N/A N/A N/A +650 +700 +630 +600 +800 +800
Bayern Munich (GER) N/A +290 +200 +175 +250 +250 +300 +333 +400 +325
Atletico Madrid (SPA) N/A N/A N/A +1600 +1600 +1800 +2350 +1800 +2200 +1200
PSG (FRA) N/A N/A N/A +1800 +2200 +2500 +2450 +1400 +1200 +1400
FC Porto (POR) N/A N/A N/A +6600 +5000 +5000 +9000 +5000 +6600 +10000
AS Monaco (FRA) N/A N/A N/A +6600 +10000 +12500 +22000 +15000 +5000 +2200
Man City (ENG) N/A N/A N/A N/A +1400 +1400 +1300 +2500 +1000 +1100
Dortmund (GER) N/A N/A N/A N/A +2500 +2500 +3250 +1400 +2300 +2000
AS Roma (ITA) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000 +6600
Bayer Leverkusen (GER) N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 +10000 +24000 +6600 +9000 +15000
Arsenal (ENG) N/A N/A N/A N/A +2000 +2000 +3850 +2500 +1800 +2500
FC Basel (SUI) N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +34000 +50000 +50000 N/A
Schalke 04 (GER) N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 +30000 +22000 +15000 +10000 +10000
Shaktar Donetsk (UKR) N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +25000 +22000 +10000 +15000 +15000
Real Madrid (SPA) N/A +235 +340 +350 +250 +250 +330 +333 +350 +350
Benfica (POR) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +9000 +6600
Ajax (NED) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +25000 +20000
Galatasary (TUR) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +15000 +20000
Ludogrets (BUL) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +100000 +100000 N/A
Anderlecht (BEL) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +150000 +50000 N/A
APOEL (CYP) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +150000 +50000 N/A
CSKA Moscow (RUS) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +150000 +20000 +20000
Sporting (POR) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +35000 +30000 +20000
NK Maribor (SVN) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +200000 +200000 N/A
BATE Borisov (BLS) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +200000 +100000 N/A
Athletic Bilbao (SPA) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +5000 +6600
Olympiakos (GRE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +30000 +30000
Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 +12500 +10000
Liverpool (ENG) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +4000 +2300 +2200
Malmo FF (SWE) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +200000 +200000 N/A

June 4th update: Juventus defender Giorgio Chiellini (known to some as the Italian player whom Luis Suarez bit in the World Cup) has been ruled OUT of the Champions League Final due to a calf injury. His absence has helped push the Barcelona regulation moneyline from -155 to -175 at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook, a big move for the loss of just one player, especially a defender.

June 5th update: Barcelona is now up to -185 at BetDSI despite receiving just 52% of ML bets on the 3-way line. A whopping 40% of ML bets are on Juventus at +525, unusual for a big underdog to garner so much public support.

Can Juventus still pull off the upset or will Barcelona’s striking trio of Neymar, Suarez and Messi be too much for them?

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

6 Comments Permalink
6 comments on “2015 Champions League Final- Barcelona vs. Juventus
  1. Hi Guys

    Where do you see the moneyline %? I only see spread and total %.

    Barca are rightfully clear favorites, but I see tremendeous value in Juve at these prices.

    To lift trophy +275
    +0.5 +152
    -0.5 +530

    Good luck to everyone
    Henrik

    • The moneyline % is from BetDSI. Juventus at that price does seem like good value, but with public bettors flocking to them, I think that the value is actually on Barcelona right now.

      • Agree based on those numbers Dan. However, according to your own software 5dimes only have 33% of the spread bets on Juventus (and 67% on Barca) so here it is the other way around. Don’t know how updated 5dimes is when it comes to soccer thought.

        • Correct but that 67% on Barcelona from 5Dimes is on the spread (-0.5) and not the 3-way moneyline, so we’d expect the betting percentages to be a little higher.

  2. Yes that of course is a good point. However, that makes it even more lopsided on Barca.
    67% believes Barca will win; only 33 % believe Juve will win or draw. And I can see that they have even taken Juve to +1.

    Well anyway, it is gonna be a great match, and, in my humble opinion, much closer than people think.

    Thank you as always for your feedback/answers Dan.

    /Henrik

    • That is partially true but keep in mind that at -175 odds, 67% of bets on the favorite actually isn’t very lopsided. It should be a good, tight match but I think Barcelona pulls it out in regulation. Enjoy the game Henrik and best of luck.

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