2015-16 NBA Win Totals

The NBA season doesn’t tip-off until October 27th with a slate of three games, but oddsmakers have already begun posting a number of prop bets and futures for the upcoming season. Earlier this offseason we posted MVP Odds, Rookie of the Year Odds and Championship Futures, but on Tuesday afternoon the Las Vegas based Westgate Superbook became the first oddsmaker to post NBA Win Totals.

The defending champion Warriors opened with the highest win total (60.5) followed by fellow Western Conference powers San Antonio (58.5) and Oklahoma City (57.5). The Cavs (56.5) have the highest win total of any Eastern Conference team.

A few days later, a number of offshore sportsbooks posted their own win totals including the market-setting CRIS. The table below compares the 2015-16 win totals for every team along with their record from last season and the discrepancy between the two.

Team CRIS (10/7) Westgate (9/29) 2014-15 Record Difference
Golden State Warriors 60.5 60.5 67-15 -6.5
Los Angeles Clippers 57.5 56.5 56-26 0.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 57.5 56.5 53-29 3.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 58.5 55-27 3.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 56.5 57.5 45-37 12.5
Houston Rockets 55.5 54.5 56-26 -1.5
Chicago Bulls 50.5 49.5 50-32 -0.5
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 50.5 55-27 -4.5
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 49.5 60-22 -10.5
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 47.5 45-37 2.5
Miami Heat 46.5 45.5 37-45 8.5
Toronto Raptors 46.5 45.5 49-33 -3.5
Washington Wizards 46.5 45.5 46-36 -0.5
Milwaukee Bucks 44.5 43.5 41-41 2.5
Boston Celtics 42.5 42.5 40-42 2.5
Utah Jazz 42.5 40.5 38-44 2.5
Indiana Pacers 41.5 42.5 38-44 4.5
Dallas Mavericks 36.5 38.5 50-32 -11.5
Phoenix Suns 36.5 36.5 39-43 -2.5
Detroit Pistons 35.5 33.5 32-50 1.5
Orlando Magic 34.5 32.5 25-57 7.5
Sacramento Kings 32.5 30.5 29-53 1.5
Charlotte Hornets 31.5 32.5 33-49 -0.5
New York Knicks 29.5 31.5 17-65 14.5
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 29.5 21-61 8.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 28.5 38-44 -9.5
Denver Nuggets 26.5 26.5 30-52 -3.5
Minnesota T-Wolves 26.5 25.5 16-66 9.5
Portland Trail Blazers 25.5 26.5 51-31 -24.5
Philadelphia 76ers 20.5 21.5 18-64 3.5

It’s interesting to note which teams oddsmakers believe are going to take significant steps forward, and which will drop off substantially. After losing Carmelo Anthony for the season, the Knicks limped to a 17-65 record. This season with a healthy ‘Melo, oddsmakers have set the over/under 31.5 — an improvement of 14.5 games.

On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers won 51 games last season and earned the 4th seed in an extremely competitive Western Conference. However, this offseason Portland lost four of their five starters including LaMarcus Aldridge (San Antonio), Robin Lopez (New York), Nicolas Batum (Charlotte) and Wes Matthews (Dallas). Following this massive roster turnover, oddsmakers set Portland’s win total at 26.5. This represents the third lowest over/under and a drop off of 24.5 games.

Bettors may also be curious to the Thunder with the third highest win total. Oklahoma City missed the playoffs last season but will Kevin Durant has been cleared to play and should be healthy for the start of the season. Factor in the lack of talent in the Northwest Division (Denver, Minnesota, Portland and Utah) it’s easy to see why oddsmakers are so optimistic about OKC.

The win totals at the Westgate and CRIS were quite similiar, with most teams either exactly the same or within one game. The few teams who did have a larger discrepancy include San Antonio (58.5 vs. 56.5), Utah (40.5 vs. 42.5), Dallas (38.5 vs. 36.5), Detroit (33.5 vs. 35.5), Orlando (32.5 vs. 34.5), Sacramento (30.5 vs. 32.5) and New York (31.5 vs. 29.5).

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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