2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Entering the season, expectations were sky high for members of the current rookie class. Many analysts had hyped the 2014 NBA draft as the most talented since 2003 when LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade were all selected in the top five. We’re only a month into the season, but it seems evident that much of this hype was overblown.

Only three rookies are currently averaging double figures, led by Bucks F Jabari Parker at just 12.4 points per game. In comparison, last season’s rookie crop (which is widely considered one of the worst in league history) produced four double figure scorers.

Article originally posted on June 27th

Looking back to draft day, we didn’t see the type of blockbuster trades many experts were expecting. However, we did see a number of surprises including the Orlando Magic’s selection of Aaron Gordon with the fourth pick, the Chicago Bulls trading up to draft Doug McDermott, and the Toronto Raptors selection of previously unknown Brazilian forward Bruno Caboclo.

That said, much of the draft went largely as expected with the Cavaliers selecting Kansas forward Andrew Wiggins, the Bucks selecting Duke forward Jabari Parker and the 76ers selecting injured center Joel Embiid.

Back in early June, Bovada posted their initial 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year odds with the more polished Parker (+500) listed as a slight favorite over the raw and athletic Wiggins (+550). Later that same week, The Greek, BetOnline, 5Dimes and Sportsbook.com posted their own odds which varied greatly from Bovada.

Since that time we have continued to update these odds, but as always, we recommend that all bettors should shop for the best line before placing a wager.

Player Team Bovada (12/3) Bovada (6/28) 5Dimes (7/11) BetOnline (7/1) Sportsbk (6/28) Greek (6/28) Bovada (6/27)
Jabari Parker Milwaukee Bucks -110 +300 +300 +300 +250 +250 +500
Andrew Wiggins Cleveland Cavaliers +400 +750 +600 +650 +800 +500 +550
Bojan Bogdanovic Brooklyn Nets +550 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nerlens Noel Philadelphia 76ers +550 +1200 +1000 +1200 +1800 +1200 +900
K.J. McDaniels Philadelphia 76ers +1200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Dante Exum Utah Jazz +1200 +1000 +1000 +1200 +1000 +1200 +1000
Shabazz Napier Miami Heat +1400 +1200 +1800 +1600 +1800 +1000 +1200
Nikola Mirotic Chicago Bulls +1500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tarik Black Houston Rockets +2200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mitch McGary Oklahoma City Thunder N/A +3300 +4500 +6600 +5000 +5000 +3300
Elfrid Payton Orlando Magic N/A +1400 +2500 +2000 +2500 +2500 +1000
Noah Vonleh Charlotte Hornets N/A +1800 +3000 +2000 +2500 +3000 +1500
PJ Hairston Charlotte Hornets N/A +1500 +3000 +2500 +2500 +2000 +1500
TJ Warren Phoenix Suns N/A +2500 +3000 +2500 +3000 +3000 +2500
Gary Harris Denver Nuggets N/A +2000 +4000 +2800 +3000 +2500 +2000
Marcus Smart Boston Celtics N/A +1500 +1000 +1400 +1500 +1200 +1200
Jordan Adams Memphis Grizzlies N/A +2500 +4000 +4000 +3500 +3500 +2500
Kyle Anderson San Antonio Spurs N/A +2500 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +2500
Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers N/A +5000 +7500 +5000 +4000 +5000 +3300
Aaron Gordon Orlando Magic N/A +2000 +2000 +2000 +1500 +1500 +2000
Zach LaVine Minnesota T'Wolves N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 N/A
Rodney Hood Utah Jazz N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2000 N/A
Cleanthony Early New York Knicks N/A N/A +4000 N/A +4000 N/A N/A
James Young Boston Celtics N/A +3300 +4000 N/A +4000 +3000 +3300
Tyler Ennis Phoenix Suns N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2000 N/A
Field N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +800 N/A
Doug McDermott Chicago Bulls N/A +1400 +1500 +1000 +1500 +650 +1000
Julius Randle Los Angeles Lakers N/A +900 +700 +800 +800 +600 +900
Nik Stauskas Sacramento Kings N/A +1800 +1800 +2000 +1800 +1500 +1200
Adreian Payne Atlanta Hawks N/A +2500 +3000 +3300 +2500 +2000 +2000

Immediately after the NBA draft concluded, Bovada posted a number of fascinating player props, but the two that caught our eye concerned the top two selections: Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins. Not only was Parker a slight favorite to be named the Rookie of the Year, he was also expected to outscore top-pick Andrew Wiggins.

While Bovada had the top two picks neck-and-neck for the Rookie of the Year race, Sportsbook.com took a dramatically different stance. Although Parker’s odds improved greatly (+500 vs. +250), Wiggins odds actually fell off significantly (+550 vs. +800).

Now it’s hardly a surprise to see the top two overall picks listed as the favorites, but many bettors may have been surprised to see Nerlens Noel on this list — let alone holding down the number three spot at Bovada. Last season Philadelphia selected the 6’11” Noel with the 6th overall pick in the 2013 draft, however, Noel missed the entire season as he recovered from knee surgery. Yet again, these two offshore sportsbooks disagree on a player as Noel has the 3rd best odds at Bovada (+900) yet the 8th best odds at Sportsbook.com (+1800).

Because he did not play in a single game last year, Noel is considered a rookie for the 2014-15 season. This is not unheard of as Blake Griffin, who was drafted in 2009, was eventually named the 2010 Rookie of the Year after breaking his left knee cap in a ’09 pre-season game.

In an interesting draft day trade, the Chicago Bulls packaged their 16th, 19th and 49th draft pick for the Denver Nuggets 11th pick and forward Anthony Randolph. With Denver’s selection, the Bulls selected Creighton forward Doug McDermott.

Last season’s National Player of the Year, McDermott finished as the NCAA’s 5th all-time leading scorer (3,150 career points) and should help provide the offensive spark that Chicago desperately lacked last year. Although considered as something of a tweener, McDermott is the type of NBA-ready player who should be ready to contribute from day 1.

Other major discrepancies between Bovada and Sportsbook.com included: Orlando’s Elfrid Payton (+1,000 vs. +2,500), Charlotte’s Noah Vonleh (+1,500 vs. +2,500), San Antonio’s Kyle Anderson (+2,500 vs. +5,000) and Denver’s Gary Harris (+2,000 vs. +3,000).

Over the past decade rookie of the year’s have included Michael Carter-Williams (#11 in 2013), Damian Lillard (#6 in 2012), Kyrie Irving (#1 in 2011), Blake Griffin (#1 in 2009), Tyreke Evans (#4 in 2009), Derrick Rose (#1 in 2008) , Kevin Durant (#2 in 2007), Brandon Roy (#6 in 2006), Chris Paul (#4 in 2005) and Emeka Okafor (#2 in 2004). As you can see, outside Carter-Williams last season, no player have been named the Rookie of the Year after being drafted outside the top 6.

We’re almost one-fourth of the way through the NBA season and there have been some significant changes to the Rookie of the Year odds. Recently Bovada re-posted this prop bet with Jabari Parker now listed as the clear-cut favorite at -110. Although Wiggins is shooting below 40% from the floor this season, the athletic wing is still second among rookies in scoring and at +400 has the 2nd best odds. While these odds are in line with the preseason odds, the remainder of the top five has seen a dramatic shake -up.

Nets SG Bojan Bogdanovic, who was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, is currently averaging 9.9 points per game and is tied with Nerlens Noel (+550) for the third best odds.

The 76ers, who are in the midst of one of the most impressive tanking performances of all-time, selected two first round picks who are unlikely to play in a game this season. However, second-round shooting guard K.J. McDaniels is currently third in scoring among rookies (10.2 ppg) and is now +1200 to win Rookie of the Year.

Wondering what the odds have been for past winners? You can view pre-season Rookie of the Year odds for the last five seasons in the table below:

Year Winner Odds
2013-14 Michael Carter-Williams +1200
2012-13 Damian Lillard +500
2011-12 Kyrie Irving +500
2010-11 Blake Griffin +200
2009-10 Tyreke Evans +700

So who do you think will win the 2014-15 Rookie of the Year? How will Nerlens Noel bounce back after missing the entire 2013-14 season? Is Parker really a safer bet than Wiggins? Leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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