Did Baker Mayfield’s Sideline Antics Hurt His Heisman Odds?
Some people will see that headline and instantly react by saying “ugh that’s ridiculous, of course it shouldn’t matter”. I’m not exactly here to argue whether it SHOULD matter or not, but whether it HAS or WILL matter when it’s time for the voting process. The fluctuation in odds is a great gauge of how bettors and the market are reacting together.
From the Heisman website– “the award annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity”. This isn’t simply picking the best or most valuable player in college football, but also deals with how a player carries himself. Unfortunately for Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, he ended up being the focus of attention in the wrong ways last Saturday in a 41-3 win at Kansas.
It all started when the Jayhawks’ captains refused to shake hands before the game with Mayfield and the rest of the Oklahoma captains, and then proceeded to take multiple cheap shots on Mayfield throughout the game. Remember, this Kansas football team has been one of the worst in all of sports over the last 10 seasons and were +38.5 point underdogs AT HOME. The blatant disrespect coming from a program which has had such little success was undoubtedly going to stir up Sooner emotions. Mayfield eventually responded with some gestures and words that were obviously all caught on camera:
Baker Mayfield didn't feel like taking the high road today pic.twitter.com/30Q5UFk264
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 18, 2017
As a result, Oklahoma felt the need to discipline Mayfield for the regular season finale against West Virginia, a game in which the Sooners are listed as 23-point favorites. He’s expected to play at some point but won’t start and won’t be named a captain.
#NCAAF #Oklahoma – Baker Mayfield, Crotch Grab – is not expected to start Saturday (11/25)
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 20, 2017
The Heisman Trophy odds market has always been very fluid and subject to huge changes from week-to-week. Mayfield was the massive -1500 favorite heading into the Kansas game and despite going 20-30 for 257 passing yards and 3 TDs in an easy 41-3 win, he has actually seen his odds come down. Here’s a look at updated odds from 5Dimes:
Baker Mayfield is still a big -600 favorite, but the incidents on Saturday clearly affected his odds in a negative way. He also won’t be starting this weekend and no one really knows exactly how much he’ll play. Being stripped of captaincy before the final game isn’t something Heisman voters are just going to ignore no matter how far the Sooners get this season.
The biggest winner in all this has been Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who was listed at 100/1 odds just last week. He’s now got the second-best odds with a road game against 7-4 Kentucky this weekend and looking to repeat as Heisman winner. This season compared to last season, he’s actually had a higher completion %, higher QB rating, and fewer INTs while still putting up huge passing and rushing numbers. He may be the “safer” choice for many voters to make by the end of the year.
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