Updated College Football Title Odds: Top Contenders Coming From SEC, Big Ten
After eight weeks of college football, the top four teams in the country–according to oddsmakers–come from just two conferences. Take a wild guess which two. Of course, we’ve never seen multiple teams from the same conference in the College Football Playoff, but with so much uncertainty in the other Power Five conferences, it’s not crazy to think that this could be the year we see it for the first time.
Penn State will travel to Ohio State this weekend which will likely kill the playoff chances for one of those teams, but the door will still be open for Wisconsin to join the playoff party should they ultimately win the Big Ten Championship Game. On the SEC side, Alabama and Georgia won’t meet in the regular season, but they do both have to travel to Auburn before season’s end which could shake things up.
One way or another, the selection committee will have their hands full as this season is sets itself up for another potentially wild finish. Here’s where the title odds stand as of now.
OSU is a 6.5-point favorite over the Lions this weekend, which explains their slightly better title chances.
TCU, despite being ranked 4th in the latest AP Poll, has the eighth best title chances based on their odds. They still have to play at Oklahoma, which likely explains their +1600 odds (5.88% implied probability).
Michigan essentially saw their season come to an end this past weekend. The Wolverines’ 42-13 loss at Penn State dropped their title chances from +3300 to +25000.
If there’s any value this week, it’s well disguised. I’d argue the only potentially valuable teams could be Wisconsin (+1600), who has a relatively clear path to the Big Ten Championship Game, and Washington (+3300). The Huskies are coming off a loss, so +3300 is the best price you’ll be able to get them as long as they still have a decent shot to make the playoff.
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