Who Will be Selected in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft? Experts and Bookmakers Disagree

The first round of the 2012 NFL Draft will be held Thursday evening and fans are clamoring to know which player their favorite team is expected to take. Everyone agrees that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be the first two names called, but how will the rest of the Top 10 shakeout?

Unfortunately, we can’t use hidden recording devices (allegedly) to listen in while NFL team executives discuss their potential selections, so we have to rely on more traditional sources of information.

As always, prominent experts like Mel Kiper and Peter King have weighed in with their mock drafts and sportsbooks, like Bovada.lv, have posted odds for picks 3-10.

The following table shows predicted picks from Peter King’s latest mock draft, Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft, the Bovada favorite and Bovada’s second favorite, as of 4/24.

Pick No. Team Peter King Mel Kiper Bovada Favorite Bovada Second Favorite
3 Vikings Matt Kalil Matt Kalil Matt Kalil Morris Claiborne
4 Browns Trent Richardson Trent Richardson Trent Richardson Ryan Tannehill
5 Buccaneers Morris Claiborne Morris Claiborne Morris Claiborne Trent Richardson
6 Rams Justin Blackmon Justin Blackmon Justin Blackmon Morris Claiborne
7 Jaguars Stephon Gilmore Melvin Ingram Melvin Ingram Justin Blackmon
8 Dolphins Ryan Tannehill Ryan Tannehill Ryan Tannehill Michael Floyd
9 Panthers Fletcher Cox Dontari Poe Fletcher Cox Luke Kuechly
10 Bills Michael Floyd Riley Reiff Riley Reiff Michael Floyd

* Bovada’s NFL Player Prop odds were used to determine Bovada Favorite and Bovada Second Favorite in table above.

Observations:

  • According to Bovada’s odds, Kalil to the Vikings, Richardson to the Browns and Tannehill to the Dolphins (all at -200 odds) are the most probable draft picks.
  • Conversely, Ingram to the Jaguars (+115) is the least probable.
  • Bovada, Kiper and King all agree on who will get taken from picks 3-6.
  • Kiper’s pick at #9, Poe to the Panthers, isn’t offered as one of the four options listed at Bovada.

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