NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 8 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 4-2-1 (66.7%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 7

Every week, I end Marketwatch by discussing the importance of shopping for the best line. Last week, most sportsbooks had Arizona State +14, but SIA, which is known to shade lines, had the Sun Devils at +15. Oregon ultimately won the game, 41-27, rewarding everybody who grabbed the extra point with a win, while most others pushed.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State (10/22 – 8:00 p.m. ET)

With Russell Wilson under center, Wisconsin has jumped out to a 6-0 record, outscoring opponents, 301-58, so far this season. Wilson is currently completing 74.2% of his passes, with 14 touchdowns and only one interception. These stellar numbers and Wisconsin’s Big 10 Blowout Tour have thrust Wilson into the thick of the Heisman discussion. (According to BetUS, Wilson is currently +450 to win the Heisman Trophy, trailing only Andrew Luck at +300 and Landry Jones at +350).

Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, a 28-14 win over rival Michigan. The Spartans, who entered the game ranked #1 in the country in total defense, held Denard Robinson to 42 yards rushing, 123 yards passing and a paltry 37.5% completion percentage.

Wisconsin opened as a 6.5-point favorite at CRIS and Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends are reporting that 73% of spread wagers have taken the Badgers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

After opening, early public betting pushed the line up to -9. Sports Insights has triggered multiple College Football Betting System Plays on Michigan State, dropping the line back down to -7 and -7.5 at the market-setting sportsbooks.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

We’ve triggered two positive Smart Money Plays and two positive Steam Moves on the Spartans, indicating there is contrarian value with the home underdog. This week, we’ll bet against a big public favorite, follow the sharp money and, as always, shop for the best line.

Most sportsbooks have this game between 7 and 7.5, but there are two (WSEX and Bodog) with a full 8, so we’ll grab that extra value and take the Spartans plus the points.

Game to Watch (4-2-1)
Michigan State +8

Enjoy the games!!