NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 7 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 3-2-1 (60%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 6

Louisville, getting 14 points, made it two straight wins for Marketwatch last week, losing 14-7 to North Carolina. Down 14-0, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to Dominique Brown with 42 seconds remaining in the game, moving the game from a push to a win, improving our record to 3-2 (60%) on the season.

Arizona State vs. Oregon (10/15 – 10:15 p.m. ET)

Following a tough 17-14 loss at Illinois one month ago, Arizona State has rattled off three straight wins, including last week’s 35-14 beatdown of Utah. The Utes had no answer for quarterback Brock Osweiler, who threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns in the Sun Devils’ victory.

Oregon has rebounded from a season-opening loss to LSU in true Chip Kelly fashion, scoring an average of 56 points in consecutive wins over Nevada, Missouri State, Arizona and California. However, the Ducks will most likely be without star running back LaMichael James, who suffered an ugly dislocated right elbow in last week’s game. At the time of writing, James is listed as out indefinitely and not expected to play Saturday.

Oregon opened as a -15.5 favorite at Olympic and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, is currently receiving 62% of spread wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

We’ve seen considerable reverse-line movement with this game as the line has actually dropped to -14.5 at Olympic, even though the majority of public bets have taken Oregon.

Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems have triggered a Smart Money Play at Canbet (+7.34 units) and a Steam Move at CRIS (+11.31 units) on Arizona State, explaining the reverse-line movement.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

The market-setting sportsbooks have this game at 14.5, but one book is offering Arizona State plus the full 15 points, so make sure to shop for the best line and grab that number.

Game to Watch (3-2-1)
Arizona State +15 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!!