NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 6 2011


Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 2-2-1 (50%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 5

Marketwatch grabbed our second win of the season last week as Indiana, getting 15.5 points, lost to Penn State, 16-10. The Hoosiers, who never trailed by more than 13 points, got a late touchdown pass from Dusty Kiel to Ted Bolser, helping cement the cover.

Louisville vs. North Carolina (10/8 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

Louisville heads to Chapel Hill looking to bounce back from a 4-point loss to Marshall last week. Leading 13-10 late in the fourth quarter, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw a costly interception, setting up Marshall for their game-winning touchdown drive.

North Carolina improved to 4-1 on the season after topping East Carolina, 35-20. Both offenses moved the ball at will as the Pirates actually outgained the Tar Heels 490 yards to 456 yards, but four ECU turnovers derailed any chance of the upset victory.

North Carolina opened as an 11-point favorite at 5Dimes and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, is currently garnering 79% of spread wagers. The steady of influx of public money has pushed the line to -13.5, where it currently sits at the market-setting sportsbooks.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Despite the lopsided betting trends, Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems triggered a Steam Move at CRIS (+10.29 units) and a Smart Money Play (+5.02 units) on Louisville, indicating sharp money has fallen on the Cardinals.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

At the time of publication, the majority of the sports-betting market is offering Louisville at +13.5, but there are still a number of sportsbooks at +14, so make sure to shop for the best linebefore taking a side in this game.

Game to Watch (2-2-1)
Louisville +14

Enjoy the games!!

Daniel Fabrizio