What Should Bettors Know About Game 3 of the World Series?

With their 5-1 victory in Game 2, the Cubs knotted up the World Series at one game apiece. The series will now head back to Wrigley Field in Chicago, where the Cubs will host their first World Series game since 1945.

The screenshot below displays the Game 3 lineups for both teams.

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Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubbies in his first appearance since tossing seven and a third shutouts innings against the Dodgers to clinch the National League pennant. During the regular season, the 26-year old Hendricks emerged from virtual anonymity to post a 16-9 record with a league-leading 2.13 ERA.

The Indians will send 32-year old right-hander Josh Tomlin to the mound for this third start this postseason. In two starts this postseason, Tomlin has allowed three earned runs in ten and two-third innings, striking out 10 batters while allowing seven hits and three walks. It was a tale of two seasons for Tomlin, who posted a 3.51 ERA before the All-Star break and a 5.59 ERA after the All-Star break.

Although Tomlin and Hendricks posted similar records this season, they provided very different returns for moneyline bettors. In Tomlin’s 31 starts this year, the Indians went 21-10 with +10.05 units won. In Hendrick’s 33 starts, the Cubs went 21-12 with just 0.53 units won.

In tonight’s game, Chicago opened as -175 favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook, with the Indians listed at +161. Not surprisingly, the majority of public bettors have been backing the home favorite, with 62% of moneyline tickets and 52% of moneyline dollars taking the Cubs. This one-sided public betting caused the Cubs to move from -175 to -188.

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When the moneyline grows too large, bettors will often opt to wager on the runline instead. That’s clearly the case in tonight’s game with the Cubs (-1.5, +107) receiving 81% of runline tickets and 96% of runline dollars.

Bettors may be interested to know that tonight’s home plate umpire, John Hirschbeck, has historically provided value for both moneyline and total bettors. Since the start of the 2005 season, home teams have gone 154-107 (+25.7 units) with Hirschbeck behind the plate. That makes him the fourth most profitable “homer” ump in our database.

Similarly, the under has gone 134-111 (+10.9 units) when Hirschbeck is the home plate ump. We don’t recommend blindly placing bets based on the officials, but it’s certainly an important factor to consider before placing a wager.

Weather is another major consideration for bettors, and there are some unique weather patterns for tonight’s game. Meteorologists are forecasting average winds speeds of 17 mph with gale force gusts up to 40 mph. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left center field and, according to our friends at Bet Labs, that has greatly impacted the total at Wrigley Field this season.

“In 44 games with the wind blowing in this year, there was an average of 7.4 runs scored,” according to John Ewing. “In 20 games when the wind was blowing out the offenses surged. On average, with blustery conditions there were 9.1 runs scored per game.”

The Game 3 total opened at 7.5, and public money has been pounding the over. At the time of publication, we had tracked 54% of tickets and 78% of total dollars wagered on the over. This public money caused the total to increase from 7.5 to 8 at Pinnacle.

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Wind speeds consistently impact the total at Wrigley Field, and oddsmakers will frequently keep the total off the board until there are more reliable weather forecasts. That was the case in this game, with oddsmakers posting the Game 3 moneyline on Wednesday night and the total on Thursday afternoon.

The screenshot below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, shows how the weather conditions are expected to change throughout tonight’s game.

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These numbers are always subject to change, so make sure to visit our free MLB odds page for up to the moment lines, betting trends, injuries and more.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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