Weekend Sports Update: Focus on MLB

With rain sweeping up the East Coast, both the Miami-Washington and San Francisco-New York Mets games have already been postponed.  There are many lopsided-bet games today and we’ll take a look at some of these games — particularly if they are not in the East Coast rain zone.

Here are some notes on several of the parameters and games our team is looking at:

  • Remember that in baseball, we focus on the betting percentages for Moneyline bets.
  • As for early afternoon games, the St. Louis – Pittsburgh and Los Angeles Dodgers – Houston games are currently the heaviest bet games on the board.  In addition, both of these games offer home teams that the public dislikes.
  • Based on our research using Sports Insights’ long-term historical baseball database, in addition to the bias of “betting against the public”, there is a slight preference for contrarian plays on home teams.
  • Other games later in the afternoon that contain these biases include Philadelphia at San Diego and the White Sox at Seattle.
  • In the ESPN Sunday night game, the Yankees (9-6) take on the Red Sox (4-10) at Fenway Park.  Fans in New England are lamenting the Sox slow start and currently just 20% of the bets are on the Red Sox as a home underdog.  This game has many components that our team focuses on when looking for contrarian plays: a nationally-televised game, a big divisional rivalry, and the ability to potentially “buy low and sell high.”  The Red Sox slow start and the Yankees’ first place position — certainly offers this!
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