Before the start of the season, the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas posted win totals for all 30 MLB teams. In an interesting twist, the five highest win totals all belonged to National League teams including the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants.
Most oddsmakers don’t update their win totals during the season, however, earlier this week the offshore BetOnline posted updated win totals for all 30 teams. Although it’s not ideal to compare odds from two different sportsbooks, this helped provide additional insight into which teams have exceeded expectations this season.
The Cubs opened the season with the highest win total (93.5) in the league and are on pace for 97.5 wins. Currently boasting a 53-35 record, BetOnline has adjusted their win total to 96 games. That once again ranks as the highest win total in the league, which is surprising considering that they trail the San Francisco Giants (57-33) for the best record in baseball.
The table below compares the preseason win totals from the Westgate with the current win totals at BetOnline.
|San Francisco Giants||95.5||88.5||7|
|Toronto Blue Jays||89.5||87||2.5|
|Boston Red Sox||89.5||87||2.5|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||90.5||90||0.5|
|St. Louis Cardinals||86.5||86||0.5|
|Chicago White Sox||81||82||-1|
|Kansas City Royals||83.5||84.5||-1|
|San Diego Padres||70.5||72||-1.5|
|New York Mets||86.5||90.5||-4|
|New York Yankees||80.5||85||-4.5|
|Los Angeles Angels||71.5||79.5||-8|
|Tampa Bay Rays||69.5||82||-12.5|
The Baltimore Orioles have been the league’s biggest surprise this season, only needing 28 wins in their final 75 games to go over their preseason win total. Baltimore had the lowest preseason win total in the AL East, but they currently boast a two-game lead over Boston and Toronto. Much of their success can be attributed to Manny Machado (.318 BA, 19 HR, 53 RBI), who’s currently listed as the co-favorite to win the AL MVP Award.
The Texas Rangers have also been a pleasant surprise for bettors. The Rangers have been the most profitable team in baseball this season (54-36, +24.96 units won) and need only 30 wins in their final 72 games to hit the over. It seems like a safe bet that they can pull off a 42% win rate down the stretch.
On the flip side, the Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks have been the biggest disappointments this season. All three teams were expected to hover around the .500 mark, but they’re all cellar dwellers at the All-Star break. In fact, bettors would have gone a combined 162-104 (60.9%) with +42.62 units won by fading these teams this season.
In order for the over to hit Minnesota would need to win 49 of 74 games (66.2%), Tampa Bay would need to win 49 of 74 games (66.2%) and Arizona would need to win 45 of 72 games (62.5%). Based on their performance to date, anybody who bet the under for these three teams should feel very confident about their bet.
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