Think Betting on Kentucky is a Slam Dunk? Think Again…

Think Betting on Kentucky is a Slam Dunk? Think Again…

Since 2004, there have been three NCAA Tournament Championship Games in which one team received greater than 60% of spread bets. In all three instances, the public favorite did not cover the spread.

The following table shows a breakdown of these games:

Year Teams Bet
2004 Connecticut 38% -5.5 82
Georgia Tech 62% 5.5 73
2008 Kansas 35% +1.5 75
Memphis 65% -1.5 68
2011 Connecticut 38% -3 53
Butler 62% +3 41
2012 Kansas 32% +6 n/a
Kentucky 68% -6 n/a

* Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends.
** Closing lines represent spreads from Pinnacle.

As you can see, when the betting public loaded up on one team (which we define as more than 60% of spread bets), the other side covered the spread in each game.

At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 68% of spread bets as a 6-point favorite. Considering our betting trends analysis, Kansas is the side you should consider in tonight’s National Championship game.

David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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