The playoffs are once again upon us which brings immense excitement to NFL fans and great value to sports bettors. As we have detailed previously in this blog as well as in our series of Bet Sharp articles, there is excellent value betting on home underdogs from week 15 on — especially when dealing with home dogs of 8+ points.
With the Rams (+11.5) covering the spread in their season finale against the 49ers, home dogs of 8+ points are now 20-8 since 2003. This exceptional record is good news for Tim Tebow and the Broncos who are currently 8-point underdogs for Sunday’s game against the Steelers.
While there have been 28 games that have fit this system since 2003, only one of those games has taken place in the playoffs. Last season the Seahawks were 9.5 point dogs when they hosted the Saints, yet Seattle was able to beat New Orleans straight up by the score of 41-36.
In addition to fitting this home dog criterion, the Broncos are currently receiving just 23% of spread wagers which means they could potentially fit our highly profitable 80/20 NFL Betting Rule as well. Because of these factors, it is worth monitoring the betting percentages and line movement throughout the week as Denver could potentially be a system play as either a Square Play or Best Bet.
The following chart displays an updated analysis of our NFL database to include weeks 15 through 17 this season.
|2003-2011||All Home Dogs||Home Dogs 2+ pts||Home Dogs 8+ pts|
|Weeks 15-17||79-75 (51.3%)||67-56 (54.5%)||19-8 (70.4%)|
|Playoffs||7-9 (43.8%)||6-7 (46.2%)||1-0 (100%)|
|Overall||86-84 (50.6%)||73-63 (53.7%)||20-8 (71.4%)|
* Pinnacle’s lines were used to determine ATS records.