The 80/20 NFL Rule refers to games where a home underdog is receiving 20% or fewer of spread bets (using Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends Data).
Our original article showed that through October 24 this NFL season, 12 games fit into the 80/20 system. The home underdogs finished 8-3-1 against the spread (ATS), for a winning percentage of 72.7%.
Since publishing the article, five more games have fallen into the 80/20 level, with the home underdog going 3-2 (60%) against the spread. The table below shows a breakdown of these games:
|Date||Team||Spread %||Closing Line||Score||Result ATS|
For the season, home underdogs that fit into the 80/20 NFL Rule are 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread.
Update: There are two Week 14 NFL games that fit this strategy, note how the Titans now fall out of this system:
|Team||Spread %||Current Line *||Open Line *|
* Olympic was used for Open and Current Lines