In this week’s most interesting game, the top-two seeds in the Eastern Conference will square off with the Toronto Raptors (38-18) hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers (41-15). Cleveland opened as a 1-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and, at the time of publication, have received 76% of spread bets and 88% of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public betting has moved the Cavs from -1 to -2.5 across the sports betting marketplace.
The line graph below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, shows how public betting has affected the spread at Pinnacle.
There have been no profitable steam moves triggered on Cleveland, which indicates that public money is solely responsible for this one and a half-point line move. It’s also interesting to see that there was a reverse line movement alert triggered on Toronto +2.5 at Bovada. That move has gone 21-13 ATS (+5.3 units) this season which indicates that sharp bettors are leaning towards the Raptors.
A handful of sportsbooks including Sportsbook.com and Bovada are offering Toronto +3 which highlights the importance of having access to multiple books and always shopping for the best line.
Another factor that seems to benefit the Raptors is that James Capers will be one of the three referees for tonight’s game. Since 2005, home teams have gone 248-223 ATS (52.7%) when Capers officiates. That makes him the third most profitable “homer” official in our database.
There have also been some noteworthy trends regarding the total. Although 71% of bettors have taken the over, the total has actually dropped from 208.5 to 207 at Pinnacle. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money has been pounding the under.
There have also been several bet signals triggered on the under including steam moves from Pinnacle (242-187, +24.6 units) and CRIS (218-184, +8.8 units). These are two of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks and they have historically produced our most profitable bet signals. The fact that we have these two steam moves along with that reverse line movement means that there is clear cut value on the under.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NBA odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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