The Cleveland Cavaliers, who currently lead the series 3-2, will travel to Chicago this evening to face off against Derrick Rose and the Bulls. The Cavs opened as 1.5-point favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook, however, with 60% of spread bettors taking the Bulls, Chicago has moved to -2 across the sports betting marketplace.
Although a slight majority of public bettors are taking Chicago this evening, this 3.5-point line move seems largely due to the availability of Pau Gasol. The All-Star forward, who missed the past two games due to a hamstring injury, is expected to return for tonight’s potential elimination game. This postseason, Gasol is averaging 15.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.3 blocks per game.
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It’s interesting to note that there have been a number of bet signals triggered on this game including thee steam moves on Chicago. This includes:
- Chicago -1 (5Dimes: 312-247, +36.6 units)
- Chicago +1 (Pinnacle: 362-302, +23.1 units)
- Chicago -1.5 (JustBet: 50-44, +1.5 units)
Unfortunately, none of these numbers are still available which indicates that some value may have been sucked out. That said we do have a highly profitable Bet Labs system triggered on this game.
We’ve previously discussed the value of the zig-zag theory during the NBA playoffs and how it’s been historically profitable to take teams coming off a loss. We’ve also detailed the value of small home favorites during the postseason — particularly if that team is also a top-4 seed. Combining these criteria, we have created the following betting system:
As you can see this system has produced a 113-80 ATS record (+27.51 units won) since the 2005 playoffs, which includes a 7-5 mark (+1.67 units won) this postseason. When you consider the success of this system along with the bet signals triggered earlier, sharp money appears to be leaning towards the Bulls this evening.
These numbers are always subject to change, so we recommend that bettors track the latest odds and betting trends on our free odds page.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.