In a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses, the Atlanta Hawks (48-12) will host the Cleveland Cavaliers (39-24) tonight at 7:30 PM eastern time. Although the Cavs currently project as the 4th seed in the conference and are 10.5 games behind the first-place Hawks, they are actually a +240 favorite to win the NBA Championship and -140 to win the Conference Title at 5Dimes.
Despite possessing a superior record and home court advantage, the Hawks opened as 1-point underdogs at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. According to the public betting trends available on our free NBA odds page, Atlanta is receiving just 27% of spread bets which has caused the line to drop from +1 to +1.5. This lack of public support is new for the Hawks, who have been one of the most popular teams for bettors this season.
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Right now it looks like public money is solely responsible for the half-point line move; however, we do have at least one sharp money indicator on this game. Earlier this afternoon there was a reverse line movement alert triggered on Atlanta +1.5 at Bovada. With a record of 23-15 with +5.1 units earned, this is the second most profitable NBA reverse line move this season.
We also have a number of sharp money indicators for the total. Pinnacle opened the over/under for this game at 200 and, at the time of publication, 77% of bettors were taking the over. This one-sided public betting pushed the total 3.5-points to 203.5. However, not only was a reverse line movement alert triggered on “Under 202” at Pinnacle (116-103, +4.5 units), but we also have a current game match for a profitable Bet Labs system.
We have found that when two teams with a winning percentage of at least 60% face off late in the season, the under has gone 160-115 (58.2%) with +37.34 units won and a 13.6% return on investment (ROI). Since the reverse line move was triggered on “Under 202” and most sportsbooks are currently offering the total at 203.5, there seems to be a good deal of value on the under.
When you consider that this game is likely a preview of the Eastern Conference finals, it makes sense that both teams would step up their defense leading to a lower scoring game.
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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at firstname.lastname@example.org.