NBA Game of the Day: Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

In a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses, the Atlanta Hawks (48-12) will host the Cleveland Cavaliers (39-24) tonight at 7:30 PM eastern time. Although the Cavs currently project as the 4th seed in the conference and are 10.5 games behind the first-place Hawks, they are actually a +240 favorite to win the NBA Championship and -140 to win the Conference Title at 5Dimes.

Despite possessing a superior record and home court advantage, the Hawks opened as 1-point underdogs at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. According to the public betting trends available on our free NBA odds page, Atlanta is receiving just 27% of spread bets which has caused the line to drop from +1 to +1.5. This lack of public support is new for the Hawks, who have been one of the most popular teams for bettors this season.

Right now it looks like public money is solely responsible for the half-point line move; however, we do have at least one sharp money indicator on this game. Earlier this afternoon there was a reverse line movement alert triggered on Atlanta +1.5 at Bovada. With a record of 23-15 with +5.1 units earned, this is the second most profitable NBA reverse line move this season.

We also have a number of sharp money indicators for the total. Pinnacle opened the over/under for this game at 200 and, at the time of publication, 77% of bettors were taking the over. This one-sided public betting pushed the total 3.5-points to 203.5. However, not only was a reverse line movement alert triggered on “Under 202” at Pinnacle (116-103, +4.5 units), but we also have a current game match for a profitable Bet Labs system.

We have found that when two teams with a winning percentage of at least 60% face off late in the season, the under has gone 160-115 (58.2%) with +37.34 units won and a 13.6% return on investment (ROI). Since the reverse line move was triggered on “Under 202” and most sportsbooks are currently offering the total at 203.5, there seems to be a good deal of value on the under.

When you consider that this game is likely a preview of the Eastern Conference finals, it makes sense that both teams would step up their defense leading to a lower scoring game.

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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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