Collin McHugh and the Houston Astros (12-25) will face off against Miguel Gonzalez and the Baltimore Orioles (19-14) this evening at Camden Yards. Despite McHugh’s surprising early success (2-1, 2.79 ERA), the Astros opened as +182 underdogs at the market setting Pinnacle sportsbook.
At the time of publication, Houston was receiving just 30% of moneyline bets, however, the line has dropped from +182 to +147. It’s incredibly uncommon that any moneyline moves 35 cents, let alone a reverse line movement of that size. This indicates that sharp money has been pounding the Astros.
The screenshot below depicts the line history for this game at Pinnacle.
Using our BetLabs software, we were also interested in determining how teams fared when there was significant line movement. By utilizing our “Moneyline change open to close” filter, we quickly determined that there was a definitive edge for teams fitting this criteria.
Since 2005, teams who see their line worsen by at least 30 cents have gone 672-450 for +17.31 units and a 1.5% return on investment (ROI). When we narrow our focus to examine solely road underdogs, this system improves to a 76-90 record with +21.74 units won and a 13.1% ROI.
Neither manager has named his starting lineup for today’s game, but Sportsbook Insider customers can view every available MLB lineups here. Orioles 1B Chris Davis (Oblique) is still on the disabled list and Astros C Jason Castro (Hand) is listed as probable, but check out our MLB injuries page for all of the latest news.
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