In Thursday’s Las Vegas Bowl, Boise State opened as an 11.5-point favorite at Cris and is currently receiving 83% of spread bets, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends.
This incredibly one-sided betting has pushed the line to 14.5-points at a majority of the market-setting sportsbooks including Cris and Pinnacle.
One factor to keep an eye on is the status of Arizona State’s star defensive player, LB Vontaze Burflict. Burflict, a potential first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL draft, was benched for a personal foul in the Sun Devils November 25th loss to California and later refused to re-enter the game. With DE Junior Onyeali already suspended for the game, even more of the burden will fall on Burflict to quiet Kellen Moore and the Broncos’ potent offense. For up to the minute news on these players, make sure to visit our NCAAF Injuries page.
Last week, our Bet Sharp series of articles highlighted the 70/30 College Football Betting System. In this article, we analyzed the past three bowl seasons and found underdogs who received 30% or fewer of spread bets went 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread (ATS).
Wednesday’s Poinsetta Bowl between Louisiana Tech (receiving 30% of spread wagers) and TCU was the second game of this bowl season to fit the system after seeing Marshall (+5) knock off Florida International 20-10 in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. Although TCU won 31-24, Louisiana Tech covered the ten-point spread. This victory gives our system a 2-0 record this Bowl season and a 13-5 (72.2%) mark since 2008.
As a result, we are keeping a close eye on tonight’s game and could include Arizona State as a Best Bet or Square Play, depending on how our College Football Betting System Picks react to line movement and changes in the Public Betting Trends throughout the day.
The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: