The Daily Steam: Sharps on Dubs, CP3 Returns, More

The Daily Steam: Sharps on Dubs, CP3 Returns, More

Each afternoon we’ll be publishing “The Daily Steam” to get all you bettors caught up on what to know. Thursday night is dominated by a great NBA matchup (BOS/GS), TNF (Tennessee/Pittsburgh), College Hoops tournaments, MACtion and a heavy NHL slate.

Sharps on Dubs to win EASY

Don’t be fooled by the evenly-split betting tickets because sharp money is ALL OVER Golden State. The Warriors have moved from -6.5 to -7.5 since opening despite getting just 43% of tickets, as they’re receiving more than 60% of the money. There are a couple of trends clearly in Golden State’s favor over the last few years:

GS vs teams with losing record: 47% ATS
GS vs teams with winning record: 58% ATS

GS getting more than 70% of tickets: 49-60 ATS (45%)
GS getting less than 70% of tickets: 91-55 ATS (62.3%)

From a betting perspective, this matchup has tons of angles, especially since Boston owns the best ATS record ever to start a season (12-2-1).

The return of CP3

After missing 14 games, Chris Paul (knee) is expected to return to action tonight against the Suns, albeit on a minutes restriction. Houston opened -11 but has moved to -13 behind 67% of bets. Paul’s return, in addition to Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley still being out, has public bettors giddy to take the Rockets as big favorites.

With a late 10:30 ET tip, track updated odds and betting percentage data on our Free NBA Live Odds page.

Titans and Steelers are hot! TNF betting action is not

We actually have a pretty good matchup to look forward to tonight with Pittsburgh hosting Tennessee. The betting action hasn’t been as exciting though, as the Steelers opened -6.5 and moved to -7 early in the week where the line has remained constant for days. Here’s the line graph to prove that nothing has happened:

At the time of publication, 60% of tickets were on Pittsburgh to cover while the total has remained at 44. Sharp bettors will definitely be keeping an eye on the line to see if it moves to 6.5 or 7.5.

MACtion Overs Heating Up

Who wants to bet on the Under for a midweek MAC football game? Well, up until 2017 it was actually a good wager, hitting at 56%, but that has totally changed this year. Midweek MAC Overs are now 14-3-1 this season and we’ve got one more left tonight between Buffalo and Ball State. 85% of tickets on Over 57, but 75% of dollars on Under 57. The ultimate test of sharps vs. squares to see if the ridiculous trend can hold up. We’d put our money on the Under with the sharps.

NHL Overs Slowing Down

9 of the 12 games in action on Thursday night are seeing >75% of bets on the Over, but that could spell doom for public bettors. NHL Overs have really cooled off after a great start to the season:

October: 102-71-6, +30.8 units
November: 45-50-2, -4.71 units

Public love

According to our betting trends data, here are the most popular public sides of the day:

TeamSpread %OpponentLine
Arizona91%Cal State Bakersfield-25.5
Marshall89%Morehead State-3.5
LSU85%Samford-8
Clemson72%Ohio-12
Rockets70%Suns-13

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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