Tonight’s Big East showdown between South Florida (4-0) and Pittsburgh (2-2), which opened as a pick-em at CRIS, has moved significantly with USF now listed as a 2.5 point favorite. According to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, South Florida is currently receiving 82% of all spread bets which is the main cause for this drastic line movement.
This lopsided betting percentage can likely be attributed to the Bulls impressive 52-24 victory over UTEP last week as well as their current number sixteen ranking in the polls. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is coming off of a 15-12 home loss against Notre Dame in which they entered the fourth quarter with a 12-7 lead.
The South Florida offense is lead by dual-threat quarterback B.J. Daniels who has thrown for 1071 yards with an 8 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio, while adding an additional 182 yards and two scores on the ground. The Panthers, on the other hand, rely heavily on running back Ray Graham. The diminutive back (listed at 5’9″ 195 pounds) has run for 489 yards and six touchdowns through just four games this season.
A survey of the betting marketplace shows this game ranging between -2 (-110) at Wynn to -3 (-110) at a variety of books including 5dimes, SIA, Bodog and others. Still, the majority of odds maker have refused to move their line to the key number of three, and have settled on a 2.5 point spread. This half point disparity can make a considerable difference and exemplifies the importance of shopping for the best line.
The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: