2017 US Open Golf Odds and Preview

2017 US Open Golf Odds and Preview

The 2017 US Open will take place June 15-18 at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin. Last year’s winner was Dustin Johnson who closed at +1310 odds and secured his first major victory of his career. Unfortunately DJ was a late scratch for this year’s Masters so the US Open will be the first major he plays in this year. Sergio Garcia won the first major of 2017 at The Masters, beating Justin Rose in a playoff.

Here’s a look at recent US Open winners and their consensus pre-tournament odds to win:

YearPlayerOdds to Win
2016Dustin Johnson+1300
2015Jordan Spieth+800
2014Martin Kaymer+4000
2013Justin Rose+2500
2012Webb Simpson+5000
2011Rory McIlroy+1400
2010Graeme McDowell+8000
2009Lucas Glover+25000
2008Tiger Woods+170
2007Angel Cabrera+20000
2006Geoff Ogilvy+8000
2005Michael Campbell+50000
2004Retief Goosen+15000
2003Jim Furyk+3300

And here are odds to win the 2017 US Open from BetOnline, 5Dimes and Bovada:

GolferApril 17, 2017
Jan 9, 2017
Dustin Johnson+700+900
Rory McIlroy+800+800
Jordan Spieth+1000+1000
Jason Day+1200+800
Hideki Matsuyama+1600+2000
Justin Rose+1600+2200
Sergio Garcia+2000+4000
Henrik Stenson+2200+2500
Adam Scott+2800+2800
Rickie Fowler+2800+2800
Jon Rahm+2800N/A
Justin Thomas+3300+6600
Phil Mickelson+3300+2800
Branden Grace+4000+4000
Brooks Koepka+4000+4000
Patrick Reed+4000+4000
Thomas Pieters+4000N/A
Bubba Watson+5000+4500
Danny Willett+5000+5500
Louis Oosthuizen+5000+5500
Matt Kuchar+5000+5000
Paul Casey+5000+6600
Tiger Woods+5000+2500
Brandt Snedeker+6600+6600
Charl Schwartzel+6600+7500
Daniel Berger+6600+6600
Jim Furyk+6600+6600
Martin Kaymer+6600+6600
Byeong-Hun An+8000+12500
Jimmy Walker+8000+8000
Lee Westwood+8000+9000
Matthew Fitzpatrick+8000+9000
Shane Lowry+8000+10000
Zach Johnson+8000+7500
Charley Hoffman+10000+12500
J.B. Holmes+10000+10000
Jason Dufner+10000+10000
Marc Leishman+10000+10000
Alex Noren+10000+8000
Billy Horschel+10000+9000
Bryson DeChambeau+10000+8000
Kevin Chappell+10000+8000
Russell Knox+10000+10000
Tyrell Hatton+10000+15000
Bill Haas+12500+12500
Emiliano Grillo+12500+10000
Kevin Kisner+12500+12500
Rafa Cabrera-Bello+12500+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500+15000
Graeme McDowell+12500+12500
Tommy Fleetwood+12500N/A
Andy Sullivan+15000+15000
Danny Lee+15000+12500
Kevin Na+15000+10000
Smylie Kaufman+15000N/A
Soren Kjeldsen+15000N/A
Bernd Wiesberger+15000+20000
Brendan Steele+15000N/A
Chris Kirk+15000+15000
Chris Wood+15000+15000
David Lingmerth+15000+15000
Harris English+15000+15000
Jamie Donaldson+15000+20000
Keegan Bradley+15000+15000
Luke Donald+15000+15000
Russell Henley+15000+20000
Ryan Moore+15000+12500
Ryan Palmer+15000+15000
Steve Stricker+15000+15000
Tony Finau+15000+12500
Webb Simpson+15000+15000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+17500N/A
Daniel Summerhays+20000N/A
Ian Poulter+20000N/A
Scott Piercy+20000N/A
Victor Dubuisson+20000+20000
Anirban Lahiri+25000+25000
Alexander Levy+25000+25000
Ernie Els+25000+25000

Prior to his back injury which kept him out of The Masters, Johnson was dominating the golf scene and was favored to win each major of the 2017 season. Despite missing out on the first major, he’s still the +700 favorite to win the US Open this year, followed by McIlroy, Spieth, and Day. Tiger Woods will once again miss out, and Phil Mickelson is also not expected to play as he’ll attend his daughter’s graduation.

At BetOnline, Rickie Fowler (+1600) and John Rahm (+1800) are their biggest exposures so far. At Westgate, Fowler and Rahm are among the top 5 ticket and money counts, along with Johnson. Surprisingly, Phil Mickelson is still getting a lot of attention despite slim chances that he’ll even participate. Many sportsbooks will refund the bets if he doesn’t tee off, but make sure to know your sportsbook’s rules before placing any wager.

As for value picks, we were successful in finding a winner at The Masters and will try to provide another winner for the US Open. Remember to find the best line possible, as futures often differ around the market.

Dan McGuire (Operations Manager): Justin Thomas +3750 (Bookmaker)

I’m a bit surprised Justin Thomas isn’t getting more buzz for the US Open, but at +3750 I like the price. He’s been one of the best players on tour this year, earning seven Top-10’s already and a respectable 32nd-place at last year’s US Open. He also has experience at this course as an amateur. He’s a long-driver but not the most accurate off the tee, so this course’s wide fairways should also help him. With two Top-5 finishes in his last three starts, he’s playing too well to pass up.

Travis Reed (Bet Labs Manager): Jason Dufner +6600 (5Dimes) and Shane Lowry +8050 (Bookmaker)

It’s really tough to handicap a tournament at a new venue that nobody really knows exactly how the course will play. I was fortunate to hit Sergio at 40:1 at The Masters but I had plenty of previous data to come to that conclusion. In this case, we really only know two things: the course is really long and the fairways are really wide. This sets up perfectly for the long bombers which is why it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Dustin Johnson is the favorite heading in. I agree with the oddsmakers’ assessment and will look to take DJ in some matchups, but don’t think the payout is enough to take him to win the tournament.

Instead, with so many unknowns, I’m going to back a couple longshots in Jason Dufner and Shane Lowry. Dufner has been playing really well recently including a win, while Lowry has shown he can compete in the US Open with two straight Top-10 finishes. Hopefully with the new course, we can get a surprise winner here.

Mark Gallant (Sports Info Specialist): Brooks Koepka +3628 (Bookmaker)

With Erin Hills set to provide the longest U.S. Open ever, longer players will have the advantage. Brooks Koepka, the 6th longest driver on tour this season, is one of those players.

Koepka has made seven straight cuts, highlighted by an 11th place Masters finish and 2nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open. He’s currently the 22nd ranked player in the world and provides value at 36/1. If you like Dustin Johnson’s chances (which are obviously better than Koepka’s), consider taking a chance on Koepka due to their similar playing style.

And here are some available prop bets via Westgate and Bookmaker:
Winning Score O/U: 279.5
Winning Score: Under Par -650, Even Par +730, 1 or 2 Over +750, 3 Over or higher +800
Cut Score O/U: 148.5
Lowest Round O/U: 65.5
Highest Round O/U: 86.5
Hole in One: -150
Playoff: +300
Nationality of winner: USA +105, Europe +195, Field -230
Headwear of winner: Hat -1600, Visor +750, None +4500
First hug by winner: Significant Other +155, Child +220, Wife holding child +300, Parent +600, None +900

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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