2016 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Last season Orioles first baseman Chris Davis slugged 47 home runs to win his second home run crown in the past three years. Prior to the start of the season, Davis was listed at +1600 to lead the league in home runs. Those were the fifth shortest odds behind Giancarlo Stanton (+600), Jose Abreu (+800), Edwin Encarnacion (+1200) and Jose Bautista (+1200).

Although the upcoming MLB season won’t start until the beginning of April, several sportsbooks posted odds for the 2016 home run leader. That includes two offshore books (5Dimes, BetOnline) and one Las Vegas book (LV Superbook).

The table below displays the most recent odds from all three sportsbooks and will be updated throughout the offseason as new information becomes available.

Player (Team) 5Dimes (1/23) BetOnline (1/23) LV Superbook (1/18)
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +800 +700 +800
Mike Trout (LAA) +1200 +1400 +1200
Bryce Harper (WSH) +1200 +1200 +1200
Kris Bryant (CHC) +1500 +1600 +1500
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) +1500 +1600 +1500
Josh Donaldson (TOR) +1500 +2000 +1500
Chris Davis (BAL) +1500 +1200 +1500
Nelson Cruz (SEA) +2000 +2000 +2000
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) +2500 N/A +2500
Nolan Arenado (COL) +2500 +2000 +2500
Jose Bautista (TOR) +2500 +2000 +2500
Todd Frazier (CIN) +2500 +2500 +2500
Jose Abreu (CWS) +2500 +3300 +2500
George Springer (HOU) +3000 +5000 +3000
Miguel Cabrera (DET) +3000 +2800 +3000
Miguel Sano (MIN) +3000 +2000 +3000
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) +3000 +3300 +3000
Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) +3000 +6600 +3000
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) +3000 +2500 +3000
Albert Pujols (LAA) +3000 +5000 +3000
Carlos Correa (HOU) +3000 +5000 +3000
Mark Trumbo (BAL) +4000 +5000 +4000
Justin Upton +4000 +4000 N/A
JD Martinez (DET) +4000 +2500 N/A
Kris Davis (MIL) +5000 +3300 N/A
Evan Gattis (HOU) +6000 +6600 N/A
Joey Votto (CIN +6000 N/A N/A
Pedro Alvarez (PIT) +6000 N/A N/A
Adam Jones (BAL) +8000 +5000 N/A
Hanley Ramirez (BOS) +8000 N/A N/A
David Ortiz (BOS) +10000 +6600 N/A
Manny Machado (BAL) +10000 +5000 N/A
Jay Bruce (CIN) +10000 +6600 N/A
Prince Fielder (TEX) +10000 +6600 N/A
Joc Pederson (LAD) +10000 +6600 N/A
Yoenis Cespedes +10000 +5000 N/A
Maikel Franco (PHI) +10000 +8000 N/A
Evan Longoria (TB) +10000 +10000 N/A
Ryan Braun (MIL) +10000 +10000 N/A
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) +10000 +10000 N/A
Yasiel Puig (LAD) +10000 N/A N/A
Kyle Seager (SEA) +10000 +10000 N/A
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) +10000 +10000 N/A
Kyle Schwarber (CHC) +10000 +3300 N/A
Corey Dickerson (COL) +10000 +5000 N/A
Mark Teixeira (NYY) +10000 +5000 N/A
Corey Seager (LAD) +10000 N/A N/A
Freddie Freeman (ATL) +10000 N/A N/A
Curtis Granderson (NYM) +10000 N/A N/A
Matt Kemp (SD) +10000 N/A N/A
Matt Adams (STL) +10000 N/A N/A
Kole Calhoun (LAA) +10000 N/A N/A
Kendrys Morales (KC) +10000 N/A N/A
Brian Dozier (MIN) +10000 N/A N/A
Michael Conforto (NYM) +10000 N/A N/A
Randal Grichuk (STL) +10000 N/A N/A
Lucas Duda (NYM) +10000 +6600 N/A
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) N/A +10000 N/A

Once again Giancarlo Stanton (+800) is expected to lead baseball in home runs, and it’s easy to see why oddsmakers are so optimistic about the Marlins slugger. The 6’5″ outfielder crushed 27 home runs in 74 games last year before suffering season-ending wrist injury. If we forecast those numbers over a full 162-game season, we find that Stanton was on pace to slug 59 home runs last season.

One interesting name to monitor is White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. In two seasons since defecting from Cuba the 6’3″ righty has displayed prodigious power with 66 home runs and 69 doubles. Those numbers could improve this season with the newly acquired Todd Frazier likely providing protection in the lineup. Over at FanGraphs, the steamers projections have Abreu on pace for 34 home runs — tied for the fourth highest total in baseball. Considering that Abreu is still available at +3300, this could be an excellent value.

Another intriguing option is Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. Last season the 24-year old crushed 42 home runs, any many fans were quick to attribute this to the thin air at Coors Field. However, Arenado actually posted more home runs on the road (22) than he did at home (20). Arenado is very young and still hasn’t reached his full potential, which makes him a solid value at +2500.

Which players do you think are offering value? Are any players being undervalued? Please leave your thoughts and comment in the section below.

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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