2016 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

On Thursday, MLB announced the eight participants for the 2016 Home Run Derby with a talented field headlined by reigning champion Todd Frazier and current home run leader Mark Trumbo.

The derby, which will take place Monday at Petco Park in San Diego, will follow the bracket format that was implemented last year. Each matchup will pit the American League against the National League, with Trumbo listed as the number one seed.

The players are seeded according to their current home run totals, and you can view all four matchups below:

1. Mark Trumbo vs. 8. Corey Seager
2. Todd Frazier vs. 7. Carlos Gonzalez
3. Adam Duvall vs. 6. Wil Myers
4. Robinson Cano vs. 5. Giancarlo Stanton

Despite his early season struggles, Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton opened as the co-favorite (+400) to win alongside Trumbo. The table below displays the latest odds at Paddy Power and will be updated as more information becomes available.

Contestant Team 2016 HR Paddy Power (7/8)
Giancarlo Stanton MIA 19 +400
Mark Trumbo BAL 26 +400
Todd Frazier CWS 23 +500
Wil Myers SD 19 +600
Adam Duvall CIN 22 +600
Corey Seager LAD 17 +650
Carlos Gonzalez COL 18 +750
Robinson Cano SEA 20 +750

Trumbo and Stanton will likely be the most popular picks, but bettors should be wary about taking favorites in the derby. The Home Run Derby places far more importance on endurance than raw strength and power. People will always remember Josh Hamilton’s astounding 28 home run performance in the first round of the 2008 derby, but they may forget that he actually lost in the finals to Justin Morneau.

Dating back to 2010, no favorite has won the derby according to the historical database at SportsOddsHistory. The table below displays both the winners and favorites for the past six contests.

Year Winner Odds Favorite Odds
2015 Todd Frazier +550 Joc Pederson +400
2014 Yoenis Cespedes +400 Giancarlo Stanton +290
2013 Yoenis Cespedes +600 Chris Davis +350
2012 Prince Fielder +450 Jose Bautista +350
2011 Robinson Cano +800 Jose Bautista +300
2010 David Ortiz +350 Miguel Cabrera +300

Based on these trends, I think there may be some value on Padres’ first baseman Wil Myers at 6/1. He should be less prone to fatigue than some of the older competitors, he has a favorable first round matchup against Adam Duvall, and he should be energized hitting in his home ballpark. I wouldn’t be surprised to see other sportsbooks post more favorable odds for Myers, so there’s no rush to place this bet.

Who do you like in this year’s Home Run Derby? Does Frazier have a chance to repeat? Please leave your picks in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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