2015 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Before the start of the season, we published an article that looked at a number of season-long proposition bets that were available across the sports betting marketplace. This included over/unders for league leaders, potential World Series matchups, save leaders and more. However, perhaps the most popular prop bet among fans involves the long ball.

Sportsbook.com is renowned for being a “square” sportsbook, meaning that it takes low limits and attracts more casual bettors. As a general statement, square sportsbooks (including BetOnline, Bovada and Sports Interaction) tend to post a greater volume of prop bets. Although the juice is typically very heavy on these props, they tend to generate lots of interest among casual bettors and will frequently be referenced by mainstream media outlets.

Each season Sportsbook.com will post odds for a number of players to lead baseball in home runs, and they will update these odds sporadically throughout the season. For the 2015 campaign, Giancarlo Stanton (+600) and Jose Abreu (+800) opened as the favorites to smack the most dingers.

Although Nelson Cruz led baseball in home runs last season, oddsmakers projected that his move from Camden Yards (Baltimore) to the pitcher-friendly Safeco Park (Seattle) would limit his power production. Sportsbook.com listed Cruz at +4500 to lead baseball before the season but, with 19 home runs thus far, Cruz has jumped to +1800.

The table below compares the current and preseason MLB home run leader odds at Sportsbook.com along with the current home run total for each player.

Player Sportsbook.com (6/30) Home Runs (6/30) Sportsbook.com (2/21) BetOnline (2/23)
Bryce Harper 250 24 4000 4000
Giancarlo Stanton 400 27 600 650
Todd Frazier 400 25 10000 20000
Nolan Arenado 450 24 N/A N/A
Albert Pujols 800 23 5000 6600
Paul Goldschmidt 1200 20 2000 2000
Mike Trout 1200 20 1500 1000
Josh Donaldson 1500 18 4000 2000
Nelson Cruz 1800 19 4500 4000
Edwin Encarnacion 2000 16 1200 1000
Mark Teixeira 2000 18 N/A N/A
Chris Davis 2000 16 1500 1600
Jose Bautista 2500 15 1200 1200
Anthony Rizzo 2500 15 2000 1600
Kris Bryant 4000 10 5000 7500
Miguel Cabrera 4000 15 1500 1400
Alex Rodriguez 5000 15 N/A N/A
Chris Carter 5000 14 1800 1000
Jose Abreu 6000 13 800 900
Joey Votto 10000 14 10000 50000
Ryan Braun 10000 15 5000 6600
George Springer 10000 12 3000 2500
Evan Gattis 10000 13 7500 2500
Hanley Ramirez 10000 15 10000 10000
Justin Upton 20000 14 10000 15000
Prince Fielder 20000 12 2500 6600
Jay Bruce 20000 12 5000 5000
Adam Jones 30000 10 5000 3300
Freddie Freeman 30000 12 10000 10000
Andrew McCutchen 30000 9 10000 15000
Adrian Gonzalez 30000 13 10000 N/A
Yoenis Cespedes 50000 10 5000 8000
Pedro Alvarez 50000 10 N/A 10000
Carlos Gonzalez 50000 10 5000 6600
Devin Mesoraco 50000 0 N/A N/A
Yasiel Puig 50000 3 7500 7500
David Ortiz 50000 12 6000 6000
Troy Tulowitzki 50000 8 3000 5000
Evan Longoria 50000 8 7500 8000
Lucas Duda 50000 10 10000 10000
Avisail Garcia 50000 7 7500 N/A
Josh Hamilton 100000 2 7500 30000
Jason Heyward 100000 9 20000 20000
Adam LaRoche 100000 9 10000 10000
Pablo Sandoval 100000 7 10000 N/A
Victor Martinez 100000 2 30000 20000
Mark Trumbo 100000 10 2500 3000
Gregory Polanco 100000 3 7500 N/A
Yasmany Tomas 100000 4 10000 10000
Steve Pearce 100000 6 10000 20000
Matt Kemp 100000 6 10000 15000
Jorge Soler 100000 4 10000 10000
Carlos Santana N/A 9 N/A 15000
Will Myers N/A 5 10000 N/A
Corey Dickerson N/A 5 N/A 10000
Adrian Beltre N/A 6 N/A 10000
Robinson Cano N/A 4 N/A 20000
Matt Adams N/A 4 10000 10000
Khris Davis N/A 5 N/A 10000
Joc Pederson N/A 20 N/A 20000
J.D. Martinez N/A 19 N/A 20000
Brandon Moss N/A 12 N/A 5000
Oswaldo Arcia N/A 2 N/A 15000
Kyle Seager N/A 12 N/A 20000
Javier Baez N/A 0 N/A 7500

Although Giancarlo Stanton opened the season as the front runner and currently leads baseball in home runs, he currently trails Bryce Harper (+250) for the top spot. That’s because over the weekend, it was announced that Stanton would miss 4-6 weeks due to a hand injury.

Though it’s interesting to view this list of potential home run champs, there were a number of powerful bats left off. Dodgers’ rookie OF Joc Pederson, who is tied for sixth with 20 home runs, is not listed as an option by Sportsbook.com. Other notable omissions include: Luis Valbuena (19 HR), Brian Dozier (16), Manny Machado (15), Steven Souza (13) and Stephen Vogt (13).

These oversights are particularly vexing when you consider that Reds C Devin Mesoraco, who has zero home runs and may miss the remainder of the season, is listed at +50,000. These are obviously long odds, but they are on par with star players like Yoenis Cespedes, Troy Tulowitzki and David Ortiz.

Based on the over the top juice on this prop it’s tough to recommend taking any players, but we want to know who you think will win the home run title. Do you think any players are offering value? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

 

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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