2015 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

2015 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Before the start of the season, we published an article that looked at a number of season-long proposition bets that were available across the sports betting marketplace. This included over/unders for league leaders, potential World Series matchups, save leaders and more. However, perhaps the most popular prop bet among fans involves the long ball.

Sportsbook.com is renowned for being a “square” sportsbook, meaning that it takes low limits and attracts more casual bettors. As a general statement, square sportsbooks (including BetOnline, Bovada and Sports Interaction) tend to post a greater volume of prop bets. Although the juice is typically very heavy on these props, they tend to generate lots of interest among casual bettors and will frequently be referenced by mainstream media outlets.

Each season Sportsbook.com will post odds for a number of players to lead baseball in home runs, and they will update these odds sporadically throughout the season. For the 2015 campaign, Giancarlo Stanton (+600) and Jose Abreu (+800) opened as the favorites to smack the most dingers.

Although Nelson Cruz led baseball in home runs last season, oddsmakers projected that his move from Camden Yards (Baltimore) to the pitcher-friendly Safeco Park (Seattle) would limit his power production. Sportsbook.com listed Cruz at +4500 to lead baseball before the season but, with 19 home runs thus far, Cruz has jumped to +1800.

The table below compares the current and preseason MLB home run leader odds at Sportsbook.com along with the current home run total for each player.

PlayerSportsbook.com (6/30)Home Runs (6/30)Sportsbook.com (2/21)BetOnline (2/23)
Bryce Harper2502440004000
Giancarlo Stanton40027600650
Todd Frazier400251000020000
Nolan Arenado45024N/AN/A
Albert Pujols8002350006600
Paul Goldschmidt12002020002000
Mike Trout12002015001000
Josh Donaldson15001840002000
Nelson Cruz18001945004000
Edwin Encarnacion20001612001000
Mark Teixeira200018N/AN/A
Chris Davis20001615001600
Jose Bautista25001512001200
Anthony Rizzo25001520001600
Kris Bryant40001050007500
Miguel Cabrera40001515001400
Alex Rodriguez500015N/AN/A
Chris Carter50001418001000
Jose Abreu600013800900
Joey Votto10000141000050000
Ryan Braun100001550006600
George Springer100001230002500
Evan Gattis100001375002500
Hanley Ramirez10000151000010000
Justin Upton20000141000015000
Prince Fielder200001225006600
Jay Bruce200001250005000
Adam Jones300001050003300
Freddie Freeman30000121000010000
Andrew McCutchen3000091000015000
Adrian Gonzalez300001310000N/A
Yoenis Cespedes500001050008000
Pedro Alvarez5000010N/A10000
Carlos Gonzalez500001050006600
Devin Mesoraco500000N/AN/A
Yasiel Puig50000375007500
David Ortiz500001260006000
Troy Tulowitzki50000830005000
Evan Longoria50000875008000
Lucas Duda50000101000010000
Avisail Garcia5000077500N/A
Josh Hamilton1000002750030000
Jason Heyward10000092000020000
Adam LaRoche10000091000010000
Pablo Sandoval100000710000N/A
Victor Martinez10000023000020000
Mark Trumbo1000001025003000
Gregory Polanco10000037500N/A
Yasmany Tomas10000041000010000
Steve Pearce10000061000020000
Matt Kemp10000061000015000
Jorge Soler10000041000010000
Carlos SantanaN/A9N/A15000
Will MyersN/A510000N/A
Corey DickersonN/A5N/A10000
Adrian BeltreN/A6N/A10000
Robinson CanoN/A4N/A20000
Matt AdamsN/A41000010000
Khris DavisN/A5N/A10000
Joc PedersonN/A20N/A20000
J.D. MartinezN/A19N/A20000
Brandon MossN/A12N/A5000
Oswaldo ArciaN/A2N/A15000
Kyle SeagerN/A12N/A20000
Javier BaezN/A0N/A7500

Although Giancarlo Stanton opened the season as the front runner and currently leads baseball in home runs, he currently trails Bryce Harper (+250) for the top spot. That’s because over the weekend, it was announced that Stanton would miss 4-6 weeks due to a hand injury.

Though it’s interesting to view this list of potential home run champs, there were a number of powerful bats left off. Dodgers’ rookie OF Joc Pederson, who is tied for sixth with 20 home runs, is not listed as an option by Sportsbook.com. Other notable omissions include: Luis Valbuena (19 HR), Brian Dozier (16), Manny Machado (15), Steven Souza (13) and Stephen Vogt (13).

These oversights are particularly vexing when you consider that Reds C Devin Mesoraco, who has zero home runs and may miss the remainder of the season, is listed at +50,000. These are obviously long odds, but they are on par with star players like Yoenis Cespedes, Troy Tulowitzki and David Ortiz.

Based on the over the top juice on this prop it’s tough to recommend taking any players, but we want to know who you think will win the home run title. Do you think any players are offering value? Please leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

 


David Solar

David is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems.

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