2014 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

The 2014 Home Run Derby will take place this year on Monday July 14th at Target Field in Minnesota. For the third straight season, two captains (one from each league) were allowed to select their own teammates and this season that honor belonged to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki and Toronto’s Jose Bautista.

Bautista selected reigning champ Yoenis Cespedes along with Adam Jones, Josh Donaldson and hometown favorite Brian Dozer. Tulowitzki selected Todd Frazier, Yasiel Puig, Justin Morneau and Giancarlo Stanton — who will finally make his Home Run Derby debut

Last season Baltimore’s Chris Davis was the favorite to win the Home Run Derby, but the Orioles masher failed to advance past Round 2. Cespedes, who closed at +500, narrowly beat out Bryce Harper in the finals after posting an absurd 1st Round in which he launched 17 long balls.

The table below displays the closing lines for the 2013 Home Run Derby from 5Dimes.

Player Team Odds Total HR
Chris Davis Baltimore Orioles +300 12
Prince Fielder Detroit Tigers +400 5
Yoenis Cespedes Oakland Athletics +500 32
Pedro Alvarez Pittsburgh Pirates +500 6
Robinson Cano New York Yankees +600 4
Bryce Harper Washington Nationals +700 24
David Wright New York Mets +1200 5
Michael Cuddyer Colorado Rockies +1500 15

Giancarlo Stanton leads this year’s crop of players with a National League best 21 home runs and, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, leads baseball with an average home run distance of 423.8 feet. Perhaps that explains why he is considered by many to be the favorite to win the 2014 Derby.

Earlier in the week, BetOnline released early odds for three of the contestants:

Of these three players, Stanton has the best odds of winning the Derby at +350. These odds are quite similar to those of Chris Davis last season which leads me to believe that Stanton will be the favorite when books release odds for all ten participants.

On Friday morning once the field was set, Giancarlo Stanton was in fact the favorite to win at +200. The table below displays the the current home run total for each of the contestants along with their odds to win the HR Derby at the Greek, BetOnline, Bovada and Sportsbook.com. Once again, we recommend that all bettors shop for the best line before placing a wager.

Player Team Greek (7/12) BetOnline (7/11) Bovada (7/11) Sportsbook.com (7/11) 2014 Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins +150 +240 +200 +250 21
Yoenis Cespedes Oakland Athletics +350 +450 +500 +500 14
Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays +500 +500 +500 +500 17
Yasiel Puig Los Angeles Dodgers +500 +600 +600 +450 12
Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies +500 +600 +650 +650 20
Josh Donaldson Oakland Athletics +1000 +850 +1000 +1000 20
Todd Frazier Cincinnati Reds +1000 +1200 +1200 +1200 17
Brian Dozier Minnesota Twins +1000 +1200 +1200 +1200 16
Adam Jones Baltimore Orioles +1000 +1000 +1200 +1200 16
Justin Morneau Colorado Rockies +1200 +1400 +1500 +1500 13

All season long Sportsbook.com has posted odds for which player will lead baseball in home runs, and it’s interesting to note that the two best odds belong to Chicago’s Jose Abreu and Baltimore’s Nelson Cruz who are both currently listed at -120. Although neither of these players will take part in the 2014 Home Run Derby, three of this year’s participants are listed in the ten man field.

Player Team Odds 2014 Home Runs (7/11)
Jose Abreu Chicago White Sox -120 28
Nelson Cruz Baltimore Orioles -120 28
Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies +400 20
Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins +400 21
Edwin Encarnacion Toronto Blue Jays +600 26
Albert Pujols Los Angeles Angels +600 20
Paul Goldschmidt Arizona Diamondbacks +3000 16
Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays +3000 17
Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers +5000 14
Chris Davis Baltimore Orioles +5000 14

Who do you like in this year’s Home Run Derby? Does Cespedes have a chance to repeat? Please leave your picks and opinions in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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