2014 AL and NL MVP Odds

We’re past the halfway point in the season, and as usual there have been no shortage of surprises. The Baltimore Orioles, who were supposed to struggle against division foes like the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox and the re-vamped New York Yankees, are currently leading the AL East by 4 games. The Milwaukee Brewers, who were almost an afterthought in the loaded NL Central, currently lead the Cardinals by one game.

Of course, there have also been a number of surprising performances from both established stars and unproven phenomenon’s. Charlie Blackmon, who had less than 500 career at bats entering the season, has been a revelation with a .306 batting average to go along with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Although he was originally listed 25/1 to win the NL MVP, Blackmon is no longer listed as an option for bettors. His teammate Troy Tulowitzki is a different story.

When these odds were first posted, Tulo was listed as the NL MVP favorite at +300. Although his odds have actually improved to +225, Andrew McCutchen is the new front runner at +200. The Pirates outfielder (and reigning MVP) has posted a .324 batting average with 17 home runs, 61 RBI and 15 steals. Moreover, at 49-46 the Pirates are just 3.5 games out of first place while the Colorado Rockies (40-55) are 13 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.

The table below compares the current NL MVP odds at BetOnline and Bovada:

Originally posted 6/16/14, Last updated 7/22/14

Player Team Sportsbk (7/22) Greek (7/22) Bovada (7/17) Bovada (6/4) BetOnline (6/4)
Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates +150 +150 +200 +600 +600
Troy Tulowitzki Colorado Rockies +200 +500 +225 +300 +300
Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins +700 +800 +500 +400 +400
Todd Frazier Cincinnati Reds +1000 +2000 N/A N/A N/A
Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers +1000 +1000 +900 N/A N/A
Paul Goldschmidt Arizona Diamondbacks +1200 +1500 +900 +1800 +1800
Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves +1500 +1500 N/A +2000 +2000
Yasiel Puig Los Angeles Dodgers +1500 +1500 +600 +700 +700
Jonathan Lucroy Milwaukee Brewers +1500 +1500 N/A N/A N/A
Carlos Gomez Milwaukee Brewers +2000 +2000 +1400 +1200 +1200
Justin Upton Atlanta Braves +2000 +2000 N/A +900 +900
Buster Posey San Francisco Giants +2500 +3000 N/A N/A N/A
Charlie Blackmon Colorado Rockies +2500 N/A N/A +2500 +2500
Anthony Rizzo Chicago Cubs +3000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
David Wright New York Mets +6000 +12500 N/A N/A N/A
Chase Utley Philadelphia Phillies +6000 +12500 N/A +1600 +1600
Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers N/A N/A N/A +1200 +1200
Justin Morneau Colorado Rockies N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000
Yadier Molina St. Louis Cardinals N/A N/A N/A +2000 +2000
Adam Wainwright St. Louis Cardinals N/A N/A +4000 N/A N/A

When we originally posted these MVP odds, Miguel Cabrera had superior numbers to the Angels’ Mike Trout, but actually has worse odds of winning the MVP (+360 vs. +160). Oddsmakers must have been very confident that Trout would deny Cabrera of his third straight MVP, and so far that prognosis is looking very good.

Trout has posted a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in each of the past two seasons, but has lost out to Miggy nonetheless. This season the Angels young outfielder is batting .310 with 22 home runs, 73 RBI, 10 steals and a league-leading 1.005 OPS. Those videogame-like numbers are better than Cabrera in every category.

Player Team Sportsbk (7/22) Greek (7/22) Bovada (7/17) Bovada (6/4) BetOnline (6/4)
Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels -500 -600 -200 +160 +140
Miguel Cabrera Detroit Tigers +800 +800 +450 +350 +350
Jose Abreu Chicago White Sox +800 +500 +2000 +2500 +2500
Nelson Cruz Baltimore Orioles +800 +800 +1200 +700 +700
Robinson Cano Seattle Mariners +1500 +1500 +1200 +2500 +2500
Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays +2000 +1500 +2000 +1000 +1000
Michael Brantley Cleveland Indians +2000 +1500 +3300 N/A N/A
Josh Donaldson Oakland Athletics +2000 +1500 +1000 +500 +500
Felix Hernandez Seattle Mariners +2000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Brandon Moss Oakland Athletics +3000 +5000 N/A N/A N/A
David Ortiz Boston Red Sox +3000 +2000 N/A N/A N/A
Albert Pujols Los Angeles Angels +3000 +3000 N/A +3300 +3300
Edwin Encarnacion Toronto Blue Jays +4000 N/A N/A +1500 +1500
Scott Kazmir Oakland Athletics +4000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Victor Martinez Detroit Tigers +5000 N/A +1500 +1200 +1200
Melky Cabrera Toronto Blue Jays N/A N/A N/A +2500 +2500
Alexei Ramirez Chicago White Sox N/A N/A N/A +2500 +2500
Jose Altuve Houston Astros N/A N/A +3300 N/A N/A
Masahiro Tanaka New York Yankees N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000

It will be interesting to see how MVP voters react to players with failed drug tests as Nelson Cruz (+1200) was suspended last season following the league’s Biogenesis investigation yet has the fourth-best odds to win the AL MVP.

Who do you think is offering value to bettors? Are there any names that should be added to this list? Will Mike Trout finally be able to pry the AL MVP from Cabrera? Please leave your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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